Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibadan North, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibadan North has 73,979 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.88 GWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,979

Usable roof area

8.34 km²

1.88 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41.1bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibadan North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.61tn

NPV₦338bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy93.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity292 MWp

Capex₦275bn

Year-one energy value₦163bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.6tn

NPV₦1.19tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ibadan North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 292 MWp
Capital cost: ₦275bn
Year 1 savings: ₦163bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.19tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibadan North pays back quickly

Of the 72,742 buildings in Ibadan North with a modelled payback, 80.3% pay back inside five years and 19.9% inside three.

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How much of Ibadan North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibadan North consume 148 GWh/yr but want 242 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibadan North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibadan North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 72,742 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,979 in Ibadan North. 65,656 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,447 (20%)

Under 5 years58,448 (80%)

Under 7 years65,674 (90%)

Under 10 years69,244 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%68,768 (93%)

Above 15%65,656 (89%)

Above 20%60,678 (82%)

Above 25%53,503 (72%)

CO₂ avoided

115 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.46 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

93.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

294k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibadan North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibadan North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	43,071	6,246	₦24.9bn	₦24.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	27,507	6,655	₦14.4bn	₦14.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	3,400	1,262	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	29%	3.9 yr
D	1	0	₦658	₦658	-3%	—

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,155	11,934	₦17.8bn	₦17.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	5,963	1,058	₦15.5bn	₦15.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,737	634	₦343m	₦343m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	995	273	₦5.72bn	₦5.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	546	116	₦228m	₦228m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	258	55	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	35%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	91	28	₦231m	₦231m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	89	34	₦161m	₦161m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	82	18	₦74.9m	₦74.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	47	9	₦42m	₦42m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	16	4	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	23,165	3,857	₦9.68bn	₦9.65bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	18,272	3,483	₦586m	₦576m	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	12,703	2,347	₦1.66bn	₦1.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	10,930	2,642	₦22bn	₦21.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	8,642	1,753	₦597m	₦578m	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	267	81	₦6.62bn	₦6.61bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	72,578	13,758	₦39.6bn	₦39.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	1,401	405	₦1.52bn	₦1.36bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	44,378	7,265	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,259	1,209	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	4,891	1,303	₦527m	₦495m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	4,699	1,263	₦5.03bn	₦5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,190	405	₦7.16bn	₦7.16bn	37%	2.9 yr
Shed	3,164	756	₦74.6m	₦74.6m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,742	635	₦327m	₦327m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,505	330	₦5.54bn	₦5.53bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	492	128	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	423	98	₦83.2m	₦83.2m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	411	105	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	336	80	₦599m	₦599m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,189	13,944	₦40.2bn	₦40bn
Commercial	784	219	₦908m	₦908m
Farmland	3	0	₦18.7k	₦18.7k
Retail	3	0	₦55.4k	₦55.4k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	67,861	13,037	₦21.6bn	₦21.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	5,064	829	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,054	297	₦5.76bn	₦5.75bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	26,507	4,376	₦19bn	₦18.9bn
3.0	19,417	4,349	₦8.44bn	₦8.4bn
2.0	17,782	3,281	₦1.24bn	₦1.2bn
1.0	4,590	925	₦124m	₦120m
0.0	2,562	676	₦66m	₦66m
5.0	2,229	364	₦5.36bn	₦5.36bn
6.0	892	192	₦6.91bn	₦6.89bn