Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Egbeda, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Egbeda has 169,497 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.96 GWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦51.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

169,497

Usable roof area

17.6 km²

3.96 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦51.8bn/yr

35 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Egbeda

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦51.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦51.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.92tn

NPV₦391bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy74.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity306 MWp

Capex₦292bn

Year-one energy value₦180bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.43tn

NPV₦1.33tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Egbeda's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 306 MWp
Capital cost: ₦292bn
Year 1 savings: ₦180bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.33tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Egbeda pays back quickly

Of the 166,431 buildings in Egbeda with a modelled payback, 64.9% pay back inside five years and 15.4% inside three.

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How much of Egbeda's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Egbeda consume 132 GWh/yr but want 206 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Egbeda

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Egbeda actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 166,431 buildings with a modelled result out of 169,497 in Egbeda. 137,686 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,699 (15%)

Under 5 years108,076 (65%)

Under 7 years137,377 (83%)

Under 10 years152,355 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%150,690 (89%)

Above 15%137,686 (81%)

Above 20%116,936 (69%)

Above 25%49,656 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

115 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

74.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

430k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Egbeda.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Egbeda

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	94,109	17,045	₦22.5bn	₦22.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	43,833	12,096	₦15bn	₦14.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,491	4,407	₦5.4bn	₦5.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	10,829	792	₦5.53bn	₦5.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	5,235	1,681	₦3.42bn	₦3.39bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	160,638	33,278	₦29.8bn	₦29.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	4,584	1,534	₦15.7bn	₦15.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,795	836	₦438m	₦438m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	544	122	₦4.93bn	₦4.81bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	400	116	₦196m	₦196m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	356	108	₦539m	₦538m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	108	14	₦63.4m	₦63.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	40	6	₦151m	₦149m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	22	4	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	8	2	₦4.36m	₦4.36m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦665k	₦665k	29%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	64,762	14,133	₦20.1bn	₦19.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	37,367	7,571	₦810m	₦808m	13%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	29,213	6,511	₦2.83bn	₦2.74bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	20,379	4,137	₦20.7bn	₦20.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	17,590	3,595	₦695m	₦695m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	186	74	₦6.66bn	₦6.46bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	144,717	27,044	₦30.5bn	₦30.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	17,125	6,814	₦12.3bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,151	1,561	₦4.61bn	₦4.31bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,504	602	₦4.35bn	₦4.15bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	76,420	12,410	₦6.89bn	₦6.89bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	27,166	3,216	₦3.42bn	₦3.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,921	5,976	₦16bn	₦15.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	15,168	5,177	₦2.17bn	₦2.08bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	13,997	4,352	₦487m	₦487m	19%	5.9 yr
Apartment	7,677	1,457	₦550m	₦550m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	4,232	673	₦272m	₦272m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,787	836	₦423m	₦423m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	1,938	1,092	₦10.2bn	₦9.95bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,793	257	₦4.11bn	₦4.11bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	522	147	₦4.86bn	₦4.74bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unknown	393	74	₦553m	₦548m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	168,912	35,913	₦49.4bn	₦48.8bn
Industrial	542	106	₦2.34bn	₦2.18bn
Commercial	43	2	₦45m	₦45m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	164,722	34,435	₦31.9bn	₦31.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	3,891	1,361	₦14.4bn	₦14.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	884	225	₦5.45bn	₦5.33bn	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	85,673	14,084	₦16.7bn	₦16.5bn
3.0	42,853	11,728	₦22.6bn	₦22.2bn
2.0	20,341	4,238	₦1.99bn	₦1.95bn
0.0	13,374	4,263	₦472m	₦472m
1.0	4,967	930	₦288m	₦288m
5.0	1,820	586	₦4.88bn	₦4.87bn
6.0	469	192	₦4.9bn	₦4.72bn