Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Oluyole, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Oluyole has 203,015 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.88 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦83.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

203,015

Usable roof area

21.7 km²

4.88 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦83.8bn/yr

62.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oluyole

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦83.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦82.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.68tn

NPV₦633bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy113 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity439 MWp

Capex₦415bn

Year-one energy value₦251bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.7tn

NPV₦1.84tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oluyole's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 439 MWp
Capital cost: ₦415bn
Year 1 savings: ₦251bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.84tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oluyole pays back quickly

Of the 198,670 buildings in Oluyole with a modelled payback, 64.1% pay back inside five years and 16.6% inside three.

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How much of Oluyole's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oluyole consume 217 GWh/yr but want 329 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oluyole

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oluyole actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 198,670 buildings with a modelled result out of 203,015 in Oluyole. 164,367 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years33,048 (17%)

Under 5 years127,265 (64%)

Under 7 years164,010 (83%)

Under 10 years181,368 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%179,278 (88%)

Above 15%164,367 (81%)

Above 20%137,856 (68%)

Above 25%66,089 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

181 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

113 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

491k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oluyole.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oluyole

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	81,966	18,463	₦18.3bn	₦18.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	62,398	16,958	₦30.4bn	₦29.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	31,544	3,930	₦7.29bn	₦6.91bn	21%	4.9 yr
A	16,623	5,154	₦23.1bn	₦22.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	10,484	1,537	₦4.76bn	₦4.74bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	194,336	41,763	₦36.9bn	₦36.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	4,182	2,039	₦25.8bn	₦25.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,805	1,466	₦540m	₦540m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	699	372	₦19.3bn	₦19bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	642	263	₦936m	₦930m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	206	84	₦109m	₦109m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	91	36	₦104m	₦104m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	31	8	₦58.3m	₦58.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	13	10	₦52.7m	₦52.6m	41%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	8	1	₦13.1m	₦13.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦351k	₦351k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	80,007	17,699	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	43,028	9,709	₦994m	₦982m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	35,599	7,432	₦2.82bn	₦2.74bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	22,683	6,227	₦25.9bn	₦25.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	21,031	4,596	₦978m	₦923m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	667	379	₦32.6bn	₦31.9bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	161,096	38,444	₦55.9bn	₦55.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	24,460	4,543	₦15.1bn	₦14.9bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	12,628	1,870	₦9.53bn	₦9.34bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	3,488	549	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,343	636	₦1.97bn	₦1.7bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	90,640	19,800	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	22,935	4,379	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	21,733	3,908	₦1.36bn	₦1.22bn	21%	5.4 yr
Shed	18,700	2,951	₦358m	₦358m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	17,607	5,603	₦4.46bn	₦4.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	15,203	3,399	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	7,469	1,700	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,811	1,467	₦548m	₦548m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,283	1,204	₦14.7bn	₦14.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	783	411	₦7.23bn	₦6.95bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	747	382	₦18.4bn	₦18.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	564	183	₦3.01bn	₦2.98bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	202,644	45,879	₦82.1bn	₦81bn
Industrial	268	119	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn
Commercial	99	42	₦90.4m	₦90.4m
Orchard	4	2	₦5.67m	₦5.67m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	198,487	43,743	₦41.6bn	₦41.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	3,188	1,664	₦22bn	₦21.5bn	35%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,340	635	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	110,542	25,808	₦37.3bn	₦37.2bn
3.0	50,059	11,076	₦26.6bn	₦26.2bn
0.0	18,695	2,958	₦359m	₦359m
2.0	17,775	4,066	₦1.36bn	₦1.31bn
1.0	3,997	1,219	₦391m	₦310m
5.0	1,392	625	₦6.05bn	₦5.95bn
6.0	555	290	₦11.8bn	₦11.4bn