Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Lagelu, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Lagelu has 176,675 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.21 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

176,675

Usable roof area

18.7 km²

4.21 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.8bn/yr

46.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lagelu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦51.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.75tn

NPV₦402bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy46.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity211 MWp

Capex₦207bn

Year-one energy value₦145bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.82tn

NPV₦1.11tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Lagelu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 211 MWp
Capital cost: ₦207bn
Year 1 savings: ₦145bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.11tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lagelu pays back quickly

Of the 165,077 buildings in Lagelu with a modelled payback, 53.9% pay back inside five years and 15.9% inside three.

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How much of Lagelu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lagelu consume 98 GWh/yr but want 144 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lagelu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lagelu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 165,077 buildings with a modelled result out of 176,675 in Lagelu. 120,255 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years26,263 (16%)

Under 5 years88,942 (54%)

Under 7 years119,982 (73%)

Under 10 years139,416 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%136,697 (77%)

Above 15%120,255 (68%)

Above 20%98,455 (56%)

Above 25%45,427 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

97.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

46.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

314k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lagelu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lagelu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	67,238	10,990	₦7.63bn	₦7.62bn	21%	4.6 yr
A	35,706	1,372	₦4.23bn	₦4.19bn	19%	5.1 yr
E	31,723	10,222	₦25.3bn	₦24.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	28,729	5,060	₦6.38bn	₦6.37bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	13,279	4,241	₦9.19bn	₦9.01bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	172,023	29,671	₦32.5bn	₦31.5bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	2,194	1,090	₦11.1bn	₦11bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,048	593	₦257m	₦257m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	744	300	₦8.41bn	₦8.05bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	394	150	₦210m	₦210m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	138	63	₦172m	₦171m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	55	11	₦28.2m	₦28.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	51	3	₦68.6m	₦68.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	20	3	₦57.6m	₦57.6m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	6	1	₦914k	₦914k	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦6.99m	₦6.99m	29%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	64,493	11,688	₦16.6bn	₦16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	41,505	7,302	₦746m	₦744m	7%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	28,708	5,421	₦2.39bn	₦2.38bn	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	23,266	3,983	₦23.3bn	₦22.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	18,475	3,408	₦667m	₦664m	13%	8.1 yr
Over 1000m2	228	83	₦9.1bn	₦8.72bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	147,121	22,198	₦23bn	₦23bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	18,415	6,477	₦17bn	₦16.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	9,226	2,372	₦12bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,913	838	₦682m	₦682m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	74,585	8,850	₦3.01bn	₦3.01bn	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	25,163	1,542	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	21,681	6,961	₦24.8bn	₦23.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	19,475	6,274	₦2.49bn	₦2.48bn	19%	5.4 yr
Shed	17,356	4,184	₦530m	₦530m	17%	6.1 yr
Apartment	8,579	1,050	₦367m	₦367m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	5,174	807	₦244m	₦244m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,048	592	₦256m	₦256m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	900	334	₦3.53bn	₦3.46bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	567	503	₦5.84bn	₦5.83bn	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	517	229	₦6.66bn	₦6.54bn	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	226	104	₦608m	₦608m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	176,658	31,878	₦52.8bn	₦51.3bn
Industrial	10	1	₦1.67m	₦1.67m
Farmland	6	6	₦4.54m	₦4.54m
Commercial	1	0	₦98.9k	₦98.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	174,241	30,683	₦34.7bn	₦33.7bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	1,580	856	₦9.51bn	₦9.43bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	854	346	₦8.51bn	₦8.15bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	90,297	10,636	₦11.7bn	₦11.7bn
3.0	46,326	11,694	₦34.4bn	₦33.1bn
2.0	18,049	3,749	₦2.39bn	₦2.36bn
0.0	16,945	4,102	₦519m	₦519m
1.0	4,528	1,502	₦420m	₦420m
5.0	442	167	₦2.54bn	₦2.49bn
6.0	88	35	₦778m	₦761m