Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibadan South West, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibadan South West has 52,293 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.4 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦56.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

52,293

Usable roof area

6.23 km²

1.4 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦56.1bn/yr

31.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibadan South West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦56.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦54.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.2tn

NPV₦425bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy82.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity263 MWp

Capex₦249bn

Year-one energy value₦130bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.04tn

NPV₦917bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ibadan South West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 263 MWp
Capital cost: ₦249bn
Year 1 savings: ₦130bn/yr
NPV: ₦917bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibadan South West pays back quickly

Of the 52,222 buildings in Ibadan South West with a modelled payback, 86.7% pay back inside five years and 24.7% inside three.

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How much of Ibadan South West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibadan South West consume 176 GWh/yr but want 259 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibadan South West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibadan South West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,222 buildings with a modelled result out of 52,293 in Ibadan South West. 49,868 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,903 (25%)

Under 5 years45,290 (87%)

Under 7 years49,875 (96%)

Under 10 years51,413 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,260 (98%)

Above 15%49,868 (95%)

Above 20%46,915 (90%)

Above 25%41,575 (80%)

CO₂ avoided

129 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

82.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibadan South West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibadan South West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	47,924	15,890	₦53.1bn	₦51.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	4,369	1,136	₦3.02bn	₦3.02bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,669	14,073	₦20bn	₦18.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	3,612	1,589	₦15.4bn	₦15bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,578	733	₦351m	₦351m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	713	317	₦18.2bn	₦18.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	315	131	₦278m	₦278m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	149	80	₦1.19bn	₦1.17bn	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	133	52	₦226m	₦225m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	64	24	₦58m	₦58m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	30	13	₦331m	₦331m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	19	7	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	11	7	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,981	4,721	₦11.4bn	₦10.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	12,447	3,995	₦916m	₦541m	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	9,583	2,966	₦1.98bn	₦1.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	7,805	3,181	₦20.9bn	₦20.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	6,207	2,029	₦573m	₦567m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	270	134	₦20.3bn	₦20.2bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	51,218	16,611	₦50.4bn	₦49.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	1,075	415	₦5.75bn	₦4.59bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	37,661	10,869	₦14.4bn	₦13.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	2,562	1,081	₦328m	₦311m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	2,480	1,308	₦4.98bn	₦4.46bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,155	1,016	₦9.82bn	₦9.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Shed	1,822	572	₦48.1m	₦48.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,570	730	₦330m	₦330m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	969	221	₦141m	₦141m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial	558	197	₦1.95bn	₦1.92bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	408	162	₦17bn	₦17bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	342	144	₦1.71bn	₦1.69bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	245	111	₦814m	₦814m	37%	2.9 yr
School	184	74	₦268m	₦268m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,926	16,765	₦55.5bn	₦53.8bn
Farmland	367	261	₦652m	₦652m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	48,565	15,370	₦25.3bn	₦23.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	2,907	1,295	₦12.5bn	₦12.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	821	361	₦18.4bn	₦18.4bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	20,675	6,703	₦36.8bn	₦36.1bn
3.0	13,347	4,111	₦7.64bn	₦7.28bn
2.0	11,950	3,881	₦1.78bn	₦1.17bn
1.0	2,918	1,052	₦133m	₦133m
0.0	1,695	552	₦45.2m	₦45.2m
5.0	1,425	625	₦6.3bn	₦6.3bn
6.0	283	102	₦3.46bn	₦3.39bn