Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ogbomosho North, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ogbomosho North has 105,742 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.71 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

105,742

Usable roof area

12.1 km²

2.71 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.7bn/yr

21.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogbomosho North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.57tn

NPV₦223bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy41.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity177 MWp

Capex₦166bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.51tn

NPV₦895bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ogbomosho North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 177 MWp
Capital cost: ₦166bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦895bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogbomosho North pays back quickly

Of the 102,339 buildings in Ogbomosho North with a modelled payback, 62.5% pay back inside five years and 15.7% inside three.

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How much of Ogbomosho North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogbomosho North consume 64.3 GWh/yr but want 106 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogbomosho North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogbomosho North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 102,339 buildings with a modelled result out of 105,742 in Ogbomosho North. 80,265 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,031 (16%)

Under 5 years64,011 (63%)

Under 7 years80,178 (78%)

Under 10 years90,487 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%89,083 (84%)

Above 15%80,265 (76%)

Above 20%68,822 (65%)

Above 25%54,193 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

61 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

41.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogbomosho North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ogbomosho North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	59,159	8,685	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	34,312	8,885	₦11bn	₦11bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	12,271	4,028	₦6.3bn	₦6.08bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	99,538	19,470	₦14.1bn	₦13.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	3,551	1,319	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,560	542	₦225m	₦225m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	585	145	₦2.02bn	₦2.01bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	243	55	₦112m	₦112m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	88	20	₦371m	₦371m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	78	17	₦45.9m	₦45.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	78	28	₦101m	₦101m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	13	1	₦7.79m	₦7.79m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	5	0	₦1.1m	₦1.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	3	1	₦517k	₦517k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	43,927	9,496	₦12.9bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	20,685	4,020	₦326m	₦326m	7%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	17,264	3,374	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	13,278	2,682	₦10.6bn	₦10.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	10,370	1,972	₦453m	₦316m	15%	7.1 yr
Over 1000m2	218	54	₦2.3bn	₦2.29bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	92,369	18,434	₦21.6bn	₦21.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,186	2,306	₦4.47bn	₦4.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,181	857	₦1.6bn	₦1.57bn	21%	5.1 yr
(Unset)	6	1	₦359k	₦359k	19%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	43,814	8,231	₦2.36bn	₦2.35bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	19,034	1,015	₦647m	₦647m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	14,398	4,798	₦9.49bn	₦9.28bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	10,714	3,386	₦1.33bn	₦1.19bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	9,079	1,910	₦199m	₦199m	17%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,560	540	₦218m	₦218m	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	1,426	76	₦35.9m	₦35.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,423	887	₦7.21bn	₦7.21bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,212	192	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,063	49	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Unknown	469	136	₦916m	₦905m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	348	94	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	105,702	21,598	₦27.7bn	₦27.4bn
Commercial	40	0	₦1.02m	₦1.02m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	102,295	20,316	₦16.1bn	₦15.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,788	1,110	₦9.49bn	₦9.49bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	659	172	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	40,586	7,095	₦9.23bn	₦9.22bn
3.0	34,089	8,476	₦13.9bn	₦13.8bn
2.0	17,141	3,016	₦1.61bn	₦1.4bn
0.0	7,329	1,810	₦175m	₦175m
1.0	5,527	1,136	₦247m	₦247m
5.0	794	60	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn
6.0	276	5	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn