Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Akinyele, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Akinyele has 145,289 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.25 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦32.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

145,289

Usable roof area

14.5 km²

3.25 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦32.6bn/yr

24.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akinyele

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦32.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦32bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.84tn

NPV₦256bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy48.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity219 MWp

Capex₦201bn

Year-one energy value₦135bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.32tn

NPV₦1.02tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Akinyele's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 219 MWp
Capital cost: ₦201bn
Year 1 savings: ₦135bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.02tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akinyele pays back quickly

Of the 137,395 buildings in Akinyele with a modelled payback, 54.5% pay back inside five years and 14.7% inside three.

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How much of Akinyele's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akinyele consume 80.4 GWh/yr but want 129 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akinyele

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akinyele actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 137,395 buildings with a modelled result out of 145,289 in Akinyele. 102,382 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,141 (15%)

Under 5 years74,845 (54%)

Under 7 years102,138 (74%)

Under 10 years117,143 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%115,141 (79%)

Above 15%102,382 (70%)

Above 20%81,946 (56%)

Above 25%42,942 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

72.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

48.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

229k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akinyele.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akinyele

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	71,408	13,876	₦15bn	₦14.7bn	23%	4.4 yr
B	35,026	2,228	₦3.96bn	₦3.96bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	24,409	3,730	₦5.7bn	₦5.67bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	13,972	3,298	₦7.02bn	₦6.74bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	474	243	₦917m	₦917m	35%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	134,081	20,588	₦14.9bn	₦14.6bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	5,422	1,292	₦9.42bn	₦9.36bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	4,270	792	₦317m	₦317m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	696	339	₦6.59bn	₦6.53bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	407	221	₦605m	₦600m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	275	92	₦152m	₦152m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	75	25	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	42	20	₦543m	₦411m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	12	5	₦33.5m	₦33.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	7	1	₦719k	₦719k	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦237k	₦237k	29%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	55,709	9,103	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	36,045	5,507	₦667m	₦642m	7%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	23,498	3,595	₦1.53bn	₦1.5bn	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	15,352	2,870	₦12.6bn	₦12.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	14,501	2,211	₦532m	₦506m	13%	7.6 yr
Over 1000m2	184	89	₦6.39bn	₦6.29bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	106,932	15,991	₦18.4bn	₦18.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	24,642	5,487	₦7.39bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	9,632	1,474	₦5.41bn	₦5.15bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	3,377	174	₦970m	₦970m	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	706	249	₦436m	₦432m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	43,876	4,184	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	17%	5.4 yr
Residential	27,423	6,295	₦11.1bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	24,699	4,893	₦1.37bn	₦1.3bn	17%	5.9 yr
Shed	16,387	3,241	₦389m	₦389m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	11,549	764	₦368m	₦368m	19%	5.1 yr
Apartment	6,539	773	₦232m	₦232m	25%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,270	792	₦313m	₦313m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	3,510	409	₦121m	₦121m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial	2,265	720	₦4.96bn	₦4.96bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,113	235	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	597	313	₦5.79bn	₦5.74bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	400	78	₦426m	₦426m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	144,787	23,322	₦31.8bn	₦31.3bn
Industrial	472	50	₦750m	₦750m
Commercial	27	1	₦870k	₦870k
Farmland	3	2	₦2.48m	₦2.48m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	139,737	21,834	₦17.2bn	₦16.9bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	4,516	1,008	₦8.27bn	₦8.14bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,036	533	₦7.07bn	₦7bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	55,393	5,491	₦4.88bn	₦4.88bn
3.0	49,089	10,481	₦19.8bn	₦19.4bn
2.0	17,361	2,832	₦1.09bn	₦1.05bn
0.0	16,469	3,264	₦401m	₦401m
1.0	3,983	823	₦170m	₦169m
5.0	2,244	371	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn
6.0	750	113	₦3.31bn	₦3.18bn