Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibadan North West, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibadan North West has 46,709 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.16 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,709

Usable roof area

5.17 km²

1.16 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17bn/yr

8.38 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibadan North West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.02tn

NPV₦128bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy31.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity124 MWp

Capex₦112bn

Year-one energy value₦60.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.78tn

NPV₦426bn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ibadan North West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 124 MWp
Capital cost: ₦112bn
Year 1 savings: ₦60.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦426bn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibadan North West pays back quickly

Of the 44,880 buildings in Ibadan North West with a modelled payback, 64.2% pay back inside five years and 10.6% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ibadan North West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibadan North West consume 55 GWh/yr but want 86.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ibadan North West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibadan North West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,880 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,709 in Ibadan North West. 36,624 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,751 (11%)

Under 5 years28,811 (64%)

Under 7 years36,539 (81%)

Under 10 years40,981 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,543 (87%)

Above 15%36,624 (78%)

Above 20%31,244 (67%)

Above 25%13,983 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

43.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.92 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

31.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

101k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibadan North West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibadan North West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	28,464	6,899	₦7.97bn	₦7.82bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	17,523	2,199	₦8.74bn	₦8.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	722	174	₦284m	₦284m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	42,051	8,598	₦6.97bn	₦6.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	2,490	302	₦6.3bn	₦6.29bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,180	110	₦133m	₦133m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	494	130	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	228	77	₦119m	₦119m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	115	23	₦130m	₦130m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	75	20	₦354m	₦351m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	35	5	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	28	6	₦91.9m	₦91.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	7	1	₦3.01m	₦3.01m	29%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	6	0	₦3.35m	₦3.35m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,888	2,891	₦4.03bn	₦3.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,794	2,151	₦231m	₦223m	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	8,472	1,443	₦784m	₦739m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,087	1,683	₦7.81bn	₦7.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,338	1,062	₦211m	₦211m	21%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	130	42	₦3.93bn	₦3.92bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	45,789	9,043	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	920	229	₦839m	₦794m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	22,037	4,122	₦3.2bn	₦3.19bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	11,628	2,114	₦506m	₦506m	21%	4.6 yr
Shed	2,210	468	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	2,031	750	₦354m	₦314m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	1,853	679	₦2.76bn	₦2.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,701	330	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,172	109	₦129m	₦129m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,148	164	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	827	28	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	591	135	₦28.1m	₦28.1m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	283	70	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unknown	165	28	₦428m	₦428m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,666	9,271	₦17bn	₦16.8bn
Farmland	42	1	₦4.39m	₦4.39m
Commercial	1	0	₦21.4k	₦21.4k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,042	8,925	₦9bn	₦8.82bn	25%	4.6 yr
SME High	2,100	208	₦5.09bn	₦5.08bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	567	139	₦2.92bn	₦2.91bn	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	22,581	4,195	₦7.52bn	₦7.35bn
3.0	10,774	2,424	₦4.17bn	₦4.17bn
2.0	8,211	1,610	₦423m	₦410m
0.0	2,001	431	₦47.6m	₦47.6m
1.0	1,673	467	₦29m	₦29m
5.0	1,257	113	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn
6.0	212	32	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn