Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibarapa East, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibarapa East has 32,873 buildings with a viable rooftop and 744 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,873

Usable roof area

3.31 km²

744 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.7bn/yr

23.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibarapa East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.29tn

NPV₦198bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity87.2 MWp

Capex₦90.5bn

Year-one energy value₦77.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.66tn

NPV₦615bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ibarapa East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 87.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦90.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦615bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibarapa East pays back quickly

Of the 32,629 buildings in Ibarapa East with a modelled payback, 67.1% pay back inside five years and 26.9% inside three.

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How much of Ibarapa East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibarapa East consume 36.9 GWh/yr but want 54.4 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibarapa East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibarapa East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,629 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,873 in Ibarapa East. 25,279 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,784 (27%)

Under 5 years21,891 (67%)

Under 7 years25,250 (77%)

Under 10 years27,053 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,646 (81%)

Above 15%25,279 (77%)

Above 20%22,943 (70%)

Above 25%16,048 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

44.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

208k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibarapa East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibarapa East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	18,029	6,190	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	14,844	3,168	₦14.8bn	₦14bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	32,079	8,714	₦20.9bn	₦20bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	301	243	₦1.33bn	₦1.32bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	283	239	₦3.27bn	₦3.2bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	100	73	₦135m	₦135m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	49	46	₦13.7m	₦13.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	41	29	₦89.4m	₦89.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	8	6	₦12.9m	₦12.9m	43%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	7	7	₦3.85m	₦3.85m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	3	1	₦4.94m	₦4.94m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.41m	₦1.41m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,132	3,774	₦8.24bn	₦8.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	6,992	1,290	₦179m	₦178m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	6,550	1,700	₦1.64bn	₦1.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,548	1,021	₦247m	₦247m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,569	1,519	₦11.6bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	82	54	₦3.85bn	₦3.85bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	12,765	4,982	₦7.02bn	₦7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	11,361	1,495	₦6.93bn	₦6.57bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,457	1,084	₦2.45bn	₦2.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	2,857	1,159	₦3.95bn	₦3.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,433	638	₦5.37bn	₦4.89bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,620	3,412	₦17.4bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,007	2,202	₦2.02bn	₦1.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	7,277	1,174	₦178m	₦178m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Formal	7,049	1,697	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	584	149	₦115m	₦115m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	529	78	₦78.1m	₦78.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	206	164	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	113	96	₦427m	₦427m	73%	1.4 yr
School	91	72	₦165m	₦165m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial	86	79	₦499m	₦499m	65%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	53	50	₦15.6m	₦15.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	38	28	₦21m	₦21m	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	32,873	9,358	₦25.7bn	₦24.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,451	9,005	₦21.7bn	₦20.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	321	266	₦3.36bn	₦3.29bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	101	87	₦617m	₦617m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,215	4,897	₦21.1bn	₦20.8bn
4.0	7,507	1,858	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn
0.0	7,214	1,105	₦155m	₦155m
2.0	4,823	1,250	₦1.45bn	₦1.33bn
1.0	1,112	248	₦578m	₦157m
5.0	2	0	₦1.56m	₦1.56m