Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Atisbo, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Atisbo has 37,723 buildings with a viable rooftop and 449 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

37,723

Usable roof area

2.01 km²

449 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.5bn/yr

59.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

12.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Atisbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦62.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.13tn

NPV₦499bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback12.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity103 MWp

Capex₦107bn

Year-one energy value₦103bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.9tn

NPV₦836bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Atisbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 103 MWp
Capital cost: ₦107bn
Year 1 savings: ₦103bn/yr
NPV: ₦836bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Atisbo pays back quickly

Of the 35,989 buildings in Atisbo with a modelled payback, 46.8% pay back inside five years and 36.3% inside three.

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How much of Atisbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Atisbo consume 70.2 GWh/yr but want 87.4 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Atisbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Atisbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,989 buildings with a modelled result out of 37,723 in Atisbo. 17,377 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,060 (36%)

Under 5 years16,844 (47%)

Under 7 years17,374 (48%)

Under 10 years17,969 (50%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,759 (47%)

Above 15%17,377 (46%)

Above 20%17,017 (45%)

Above 25%16,413 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

98 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

218k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Atisbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Atisbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	31,815	11,413	₦55.8bn	₦54.5bn	7%	9.1 yr
D	5,908	1,653	₦7.71bn	₦7.62bn	7%	14.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,696	12,163	₦55.3bn	₦54.1bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial General	444	395	₦5.64bn	₦5.61bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	204	194	₦2.14bn	₦1.89bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	155	155	₦136m	₦136m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	99	82	₦91.4m	₦91.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	79	33	₦174m	₦169m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	16	15	₦43.9m	₦43.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	15	14	₦2.46m	₦2.46m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	13	13	₦16.7m	₦16.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	20,152	2,726	₦558m	₦548m	3%	18.6 yr
100 250m2	6,589	5,171	₦34bn	₦33.2bn	75%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	4,859	1,524	₦819m	₦819m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	4,534	2,284	₦3.56bn	₦3.43bn	53%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,563	1,339	₦22.5bn	₦22.1bn	75%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	26	22	₦2.08bn	₦2.06bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	23,317	1,659	₦10.8bn	₦10bn	5%	17.9 yr
Dense Urban	8,940	7,951	₦35.2bn	₦34.8bn	73%	1.4 yr
Rural	3,293	1,555	₦4.58bn	₦4.54bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	2,173	1,901	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn	75%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,601	2,229	₦428m	₦428m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential	6,628	4,732	₦47.5bn	₦46.5bn	75%	1.4 yr
Residential Small	6,613	3,739	₦5.22bn	₦5.08bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,644	1,342	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	198	144	₦1.2bn	₦1.19bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	186	186	₦3.23bn	₦3.22bn	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	168	167	₦138m	₦138m	63%	1.6 yr
Apartment	83	73	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	81	45	₦81.7m	₦81.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	79	33	₦174m	₦169m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	70	70	₦1.21bn	₦1.19bn	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	67	63	₦594m	₦594m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	37,704	13,066	₦63.5bn	₦62.1bn
Farmyard	10	0	₦240k	₦240k
Retail	9	0	₦78.9k	₦78.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	37,166	12,566	₦56.7bn	₦55.5bn	7%	13.6 yr
SME High	282	281	₦4.52bn	₦4.49bn	67%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	275	219	₦2.3bn	₦2.05bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	21,487	2,069	₦389m	₦389m
3.0	8,363	6,847	₦52.2bn	₦51.4bn
2.0	3,919	2,091	₦5.13bn	₦4.51bn
1.0	2,328	715	₦517m	₦507m
4.0	1,623	1,341	₦4.93bn	₦4.92bn
5.0	3	3	₦361m	₦345m