Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Afijio, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Afijio has 39,753 buildings with a viable rooftop and 897 MWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

39,753

Usable roof area

3.99 km²

897 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.1bn/yr

3.68 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Afijio

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦377bn

NPV₦48.4bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity43 MWp

Capex₦39.3bn

Year-one energy value₦21.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.02tn

NPV₦158bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Afijio's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 43 MWp
Capital cost: ₦39.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦21.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦158bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Afijio pays back quickly

Of the 39,262 buildings in Afijio with a modelled payback, 48.7% pay back inside five years and 13.4% inside three.

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How much of Afijio's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Afijio consume 19.1 GWh/yr but want 31.2 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Afijio

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Afijio actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 39,262 buildings with a modelled result out of 39,753 in Afijio. 29,794 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,253 (13%)

Under 5 years19,101 (49%)

Under 7 years29,684 (76%)

Under 10 years35,734 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,128 (88%)

Above 15%29,794 (75%)

Above 20%22,382 (56%)

Above 25%11,079 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

15.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.46 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

26.2k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Afijio.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Afijio

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	29,248	6,387	₦5.15bn	₦5.15bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	10,365	1,128	₦939m	₦939m	21%	5.4 yr
C	140	2	₦7.39m	₦7.39m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,393	7,135	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	21%	5.1 yr
Industrial	480	95	₦581m	₦578m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	465	138	₦854m	₦854m	31%	3.6 yr
Anchor	310	105	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	66	21	₦24.3m	₦24.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	31	20	₦7.54m	₦7.54m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	7	3	₦8.5m	₦8.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦328k	₦328k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,249	2,812	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	8,606	1,363	₦245m	₦245m	17%	6.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,240	1,222	₦137m	₦135m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	5,001	801	₦121m	₦121m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,512	1,240	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	145	79	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	14,835	1,363	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	19%	5.9 yr
Urban Centre	13,661	2,199	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	5,922	1,902	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,048	1,713	₦578m	₦578m	31%	3.6 yr
Rural	2,287	340	₦164m	₦164m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	16,409	3,499	₦934m	₦934m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	10,066	1,371	₦156m	₦156m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential	5,537	1,295	₦603m	₦603m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	5,240	643	₦62m	₦62m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Large	1,004	305	₦42.4m	₦42.4m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	472	108	₦2.78bn	₦2.78bn	29%	3.6 yr
Industrial Site	301	55	₦414m	₦412m	37%	2.9 yr
Agricultural	137	22	₦22m	₦22m	29%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	102	36	₦162m	₦162m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	90	23	₦126m	₦124m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	88	61	₦409m	₦409m	41%	2.4 yr
School	73	31	₦114m	₦114m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	39,727	7,517	₦6.1bn	₦6.1bn
Industrial	26	0	₦522k	₦522k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,875	7,254	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
Enterprise	783	199	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	37%	2.9 yr
SME High	95	64	₦418m	₦418m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	17,376	3,233	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn
0.0	9,742	1,297	₦158m	₦158m
3.0	6,662	1,680	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn
1.0	4,988	662	₦105m	₦105m
4.0	948	623	₦2.77bn	₦2.77bn
5.0	36	22	₦224m	₦224m
6.0	1	0	₦3.61m	₦3.61m