Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ori Ire, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ori Ire has 48,460 buildings with a viable rooftop and 799 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦51.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,460

Usable roof area

3.57 km²

799 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦51.3bn/yr

47.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ori Ire

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦51.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦49.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.56tn

NPV₦408bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy30.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity142 MWp

Capex₦144bn

Year-one energy value₦133bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.3tn

NPV₦1.07tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ori Ire's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 142 MWp
Capital cost: ₦144bn
Year 1 savings: ₦133bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.07tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ori Ire pays back quickly

Of the 47,598 buildings in Ori Ire with a modelled payback, 61.8% pay back inside five years and 35.0% inside three.

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How much of Ori Ire's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ori Ire consume 66.6 GWh/yr but want 97.1 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ori Ire

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ori Ire actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,598 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,460 in Ori Ire. 32,374 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,683 (35%)

Under 5 years29,436 (62%)

Under 7 years32,356 (68%)

Under 10 years34,905 (73%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,206 (71%)

Above 15%32,374 (67%)

Above 20%30,321 (63%)

Above 25%27,515 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

86.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

295k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ori Ire.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ori Ire

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	36,198	13,193	₦40.6bn	₦39.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	12,093	3,453	₦10.2bn	₦9.99bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	169	74	₦536m	₦536m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,408	14,206	₦40.8bn	₦39.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,337	1,054	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	572	436	₦151m	₦151m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	443	414	₦4.12bn	₦4bn	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial	287	224	₦537m	₦533m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	188	170	₦180m	₦180m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	137	136	₦191m	₦191m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	57	57	₦211m	₦211m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	28	22	₦77.8m	₦77.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	1	₦1.77m	₦1.77m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,886	7,321	₦28.1bn	₦27.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	15,548	3,208	₦544m	₦537m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	8,622	3,035	₦3.55bn	₦3.53bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	6,272	1,896	₦751m	₦751m	13%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,103	1,241	₦16.6bn	₦15.5bn	61%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	29	19	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	24,977	6,334	₦22.6bn	₦21.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,119	3,207	₦8.52bn	₦8.51bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	5,914	3,015	₦8.03bn	₦7.72bn	55%	1.9 yr
Urban	5,809	2,245	₦8.25bn	₦8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	2,605	1,917	₦3.89bn	₦3.87bn	65%	1.6 yr
(Unset)	36	2	₦2.97m	₦2.97m	13%	7.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	15,824	2,607	₦357m	₦357m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	12,457	4,862	₦4.81bn	₦4.79bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	12,296	5,574	₦34.1bn	₦32.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,313	990	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,023	0	₦35.6m	₦35.6m	17%	6.1 yr
Commercial	859	699	₦3.6bn	₦3.6bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	676	539	₦251m	₦251m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	397	328	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	274	76	₦135m	₦135m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	166	115	₦326m	₦326m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	165	115	₦275m	₦272m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	153	146	₦675m	₦675m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,420	16,694	₦51bn	₦49.5bn
Industrial	31	23	₦275m	₦275m
Allotments	9	3	₦4.52m	₦4.52m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,698	15,268	₦42.7bn	₦41.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,075	857	₦4.27bn	₦4.26bn	53%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	687	595	₦4.35bn	₦4.24bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	18,353	8,727	₦40.5bn	₦39bn
0.0	15,858	2,605	₦360m	₦360m
2.0	7,744	2,939	₦4.33bn	₦4.22bn
4.0	3,754	1,175	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn
1.0	1,918	617	₦449m	₦449m
5.0	697	542	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn
6.0	136	115	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn