Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Itesiwaju, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Itesiwaju has 48,269 buildings with a viable rooftop and 488 MWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,269

Usable roof area

2.19 km²

488 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.3bn/yr

25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Itesiwaju

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.49tn

NPV₦231bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity82.8 MWp

Capex₦87.7bn

Year-one energy value₦80.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.78tn

NPV₦642bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Itesiwaju's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 82.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦642bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Itesiwaju pays back quickly

Of the 46,578 buildings in Itesiwaju with a modelled payback, 35.6% pay back inside five years and 18.6% inside three.

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How much of Itesiwaju's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Itesiwaju consume 37.6 GWh/yr but want 53.1 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Itesiwaju

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Itesiwaju actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,578 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,269 in Itesiwaju. 19,003 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,674 (19%)

Under 5 years16,601 (36%)

Under 7 years18,983 (41%)

Under 10 years21,045 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,614 (43%)

Above 15%19,003 (39%)

Above 20%17,251 (36%)

Above 25%15,491 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

50.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

269k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Itesiwaju.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Itesiwaju

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	35,882	4,307	₦15bn	₦14.6bn	5%	16.1 yr
D	11,582	3,712	₦12.5bn	₦12.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	805	747	₦1.8bn	₦1.79bn	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,218	8,208	₦27.3bn	₦26.9bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial General	314	135	₦490m	₦490m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	234	171	₦1.1bn	₦1.07bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	199	63	₦170m	₦170m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	122	84	₦136m	₦136m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	54	28	₦22m	₦22m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	52	34	₦5.05m	₦5.05m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	51	23	₦4.26m	₦4.26m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	24	19	₦47.1m	₦46.9m	51%	1.9 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦7.49m	₦7.49m	49%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,759	1,839	₦333m	₦332m	3%	18.1 yr
30 50m2	7,376	1,091	₦472m	₦472m	9%	13.1 yr
100 250m2	6,266	3,470	₦14.7bn	₦14.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	5,180	1,360	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,666	994	₦12.3bn	₦12.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	22	12	₦172m	₦172m	39%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	30,665	1,033	₦5.48bn	₦5.05bn	5%	17.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,913	4,118	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Rural	7,489	2,155	₦7bn	₦6.97bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban	2,202	1,460	₦5.88bn	₦5.88bn	57%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	27,443	1,581	₦244m	₦244m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential	8,585	3,337	₦23.8bn	₦23.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,144	2,328	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,748	707	₦781m	₦781m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	843	123	₦168m	₦168m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	301	143	₦646m	₦646m	29%	3.6 yr
Apartment	189	70	₦90.4m	₦90.4m	27%	4.1 yr
Industrial Site	172	46	₦120m	₦120m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	159	62	₦82.4m	₦82.4m	27%	4.1 yr
Agricultural	107	0	₦239k	₦239k	7%	15.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	90	53	₦7.75m	₦7.75m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	80	60	₦292m	₦292m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,256	8,765	₦29.3bn	₦28.8bn
Farmland	13	1	₦1.58m	₦1.58m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	47,767	8,495	₦28bn	₦27.5bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	407	223	₦1.27bn	₦1.23bn	45%	2.4 yr
SME High	95	48	₦98.2m	₦98m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	27,537	1,557	₦229m	₦229m
3.0	8,334	4,668	₦25.7bn	₦25.4bn
2.0	5,707	1,393	₦1.83bn	₦1.62bn
1.0	3,698	381	₦272m	₦272m
4.0	2,992	767	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn
5.0	1	0	₦582k	₦582k