Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibarapa North, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibarapa North has 26,775 buildings with a viable rooftop and 467 MWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

26,775

Usable roof area

2.08 km²

467 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.7bn/yr

32.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibarapa North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.78tn

NPV₦280bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy14.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity79.8 MWp

Capex₦84.1bn

Year-one energy value₦77.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.68tn

NPV₦623bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ibarapa North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 79.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦623bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibarapa North pays back quickly

Of the 26,463 buildings in Ibarapa North with a modelled payback, 67.1% pay back inside five years and 42.9% inside three.

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How much of Ibarapa North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibarapa North consume 41.2 GWh/yr but want 55.7 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibarapa North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibarapa North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 26,463 buildings with a modelled result out of 26,775 in Ibarapa North. 18,827 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,361 (43%)

Under 5 years17,768 (67%)

Under 7 years18,817 (71%)

Under 10 years19,692 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,438 (73%)

Above 15%18,827 (70%)

Above 20%18,154 (68%)

Above 25%15,622 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

58.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

208k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibarapa North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibarapa North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	20,569	8,981	₦30.8bn	₦30.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	6,206	2,374	₦4.91bn	₦4.91bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	26,209	10,839	₦32.6bn	₦32bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	237	213	₦1.71bn	₦1.57bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	164	148	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	71	64	₦51.1m	₦51.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	31	28	₦99.2m	₦98.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	20	20	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	16	16	₦28.1m	₦28.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	14	14	₦3.69m	₦3.69m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	13	13	₦61.5m	₦61.1m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	7,605	1,770	₦330m	₦324m	5%	16.4 yr
100 250m2	7,043	4,299	₦15.8bn	₦15.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	6,049	2,419	₦2.56bn	₦2.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,095	1,334	₦492m	₦492m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,977	1,531	₦16.4bn	₦16.2bn	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	2	₦67.1m	₦67.1m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	12,305	1,444	₦6.44bn	₦5.85bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,599	7,853	₦21.9bn	₦21.8bn	59%	1.9 yr
Urban	2,528	1,775	₦6.98bn	₦6.98bn	71%	1.4 yr
Rural	343	283	₦362m	₦362m	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	7,873	1,175	₦170m	₦170m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	6,803	3,040	₦3.28bn	₦3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,319	3,418	₦24.6bn	₦24.3bn	73%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	5,316	2,767	₦3.96bn	₦3.96bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	481	232	₦362m	₦362m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	413	207	₦204m	₦204m	43%	2.6 yr
Institutional	146	129	₦920m	₦920m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	94	80	₦492m	₦492m	81%	1.4 yr
School	60	55	₦149m	₦149m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	41	36	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	38	38	₦254m	₦254m	71%	1.4 yr
Clinic	29	27	₦157m	₦156m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,743	11,354	₦35.6bn	₦35bn
Farmland	22	1	₦60.9m	₦16.4m
Farmyard	10	0	₦15.6k	₦15.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,459	11,066	₦33.6bn	₦33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	258	231	₦1.78bn	₦1.64bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	58	58	₦341m	₦340m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,298	5,555	₦28.3bn	₦27.9bn
0.0	7,877	1,176	₦169m	₦169m
4.0	5,716	3,001	₦5.1bn	₦5.08bn
2.0	3,640	1,384	₦1.75bn	₦1.62bn
1.0	1,243	238	₦395m	₦181m
5.0	1	1	₦32.7m	₦32.7m