Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibadan South East, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibadan South East has 45,884 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.09 GWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦39.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,884

Usable roof area

4.84 km²

1.09 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦39.3bn/yr

24.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibadan South East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦39.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦38bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.26tn

NPV₦306bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy61.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity190 MWp

Capex₦180bn

Year-one energy value₦111bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.22tn

NPV₦826bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ibadan South East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 190 MWp
Capital cost: ₦180bn
Year 1 savings: ₦111bn/yr
NPV: ₦826bn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibadan South East pays back quickly

Of the 45,804 buildings in Ibadan South East with a modelled payback, 89.9% pay back inside five years and 30.7% inside three.

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How much of Ibadan South East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibadan South East consume 119 GWh/yr but want 181 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibadan South East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibadan South East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,804 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,884 in Ibadan South East. 44,346 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,065 (31%)

Under 5 years41,166 (90%)

Under 7 years44,353 (97%)

Under 10 years45,401 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,302 (99%)

Above 15%44,346 (97%)

Above 20%42,285 (92%)

Above 25%38,826 (85%)

CO₂ avoided

90 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.53 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

61.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

213k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibadan South East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibadan South East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	32,390	6,159	₦15.4bn	₦14.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
A	13,494	7,283	₦23.9bn	₦23.2bn	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,427	9,336	₦15.1bn	₦13.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	4,390	2,401	₦21.2bn	₦21.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,277	1,321	₦514m	₦514m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	446	222	₦1.96bn	₦1.94bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	173	77	₦97.5m	₦97.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	50	26	₦55m	₦55m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	47	24	₦98.5m	₦98.2m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	46	21	₦205m	₦203m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	18	8	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	8	5	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	43%	2.4 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦973k	₦973k	31%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,199	4,706	₦14.1bn	₦14bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,700	3,002	₦744m	₦546m	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	7,798	2,078	₦2.1bn	₦1.66bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,367	2,108	₦17.8bn	₦17.7bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	4,773	1,512	₦1.18bn	₦616m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	47	36	₦3.43bn	₦3.41bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	45,382	13,225	₦37.5bn	₦37.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	502	217	₦1.78bn	₦835m	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	17,902	3,565	₦6.12bn	₦5.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	12,341	2,888	₦4.2bn	₦4.13bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	2,607	1,079	₦941m	₦436m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	2,423	1,131	₦3.08bn	₦3.04bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,278	1,322	₦509m	₦509m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,962	995	₦9.81bn	₦9.79bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,754	1,054	₦9.04bn	₦9.03bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	1,638	269	₦446m	₦435m	29%	3.9 yr
Duplex	833	190	₦300m	₦300m	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	681	212	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Unknown	342	182	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	242	122	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,782	13,358	₦38.9bn	₦37.6bn
Commercial	102	84	₦401m	₦401m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	41,574	11,099	₦18.1bn	₦16.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	3,820	2,098	₦19.2bn	₦19.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	490	245	₦2.06bn	₦2.04bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	26,732	6,835	₦18.3bn	₦17.7bn
3.0	8,519	2,397	₦3.11bn	₦2.44bn
2.0	6,026	2,035	₦671m	₦605m
5.0	2,375	1,146	₦6.93bn	₦6.92bn
1.0	1,059	359	₦91.8m	₦91.8m
6.0	758	508	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn
0.0	415	162	₦8.8m	₦8.8m