Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Surulere, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Surulere has 34,072 buildings with a viable rooftop and 670 MWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦86.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,072

Usable roof area

2.99 km²

670 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦86.7bn/yr

94.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Surulere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦86.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦73.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.65tn

NPV₦598bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy39.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity182 MWp

Capex₦182bn

Year-one energy value₦169bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.84tn

NPV₦1.34tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Surulere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 182 MWp
Capital cost: ₦182bn
Year 1 savings: ₦169bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.34tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Surulere pays back quickly

Of the 33,571 buildings in Surulere with a modelled payback, 69.9% pay back inside five years and 41.3% inside three.

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How much of Surulere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Surulere consume 121 GWh/yr but want 161 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Surulere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Surulere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,571 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,072 in Surulere. 25,198 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,860 (41%)

Under 5 years23,475 (70%)

Under 7 years25,193 (75%)

Under 10 years26,672 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,274 (77%)

Above 15%25,198 (74%)

Above 20%24,043 (71%)

Above 25%22,231 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

119 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

38.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

39.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

357k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Surulere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Surulere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	26,325	11,791	₦75.1bn	₦63.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	7,747	1,894	₦11.6bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,925	11,211	₦47.7bn	₦42bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,165	1,696	₦32.8bn	₦26.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	534	396	₦211m	₦211m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	278	253	₦5.32bn	₦4.4bn	75%	1.4 yr
Worship	86	72	₦156m	₦156m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	70	45	₦472m	₦413m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	13	11	₦15.4m	₦15.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦568k	₦568k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,487	5,957	₦31.5bn	₦29.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,888	2,319	₦383m	₦374m	5%	15.6 yr
50 100m2	6,161	2,451	₦3.43bn	₦3.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,212	1,551	₦748m	₦724m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,212	1,314	₦35.7bn	₦30.4bn	67%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	112	93	₦14.9bn	₦9.52bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	12,354	3,579	₦24.4bn	₦21.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,433	1,916	₦3.45bn	₦3.45bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	5,357	2,623	₦11.5bn	₦10.5bn	33%	3.1 yr
Rural	4,999	3,267	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	71%	1.4 yr
(Unset)	3,102	886	₦4.23bn	₦2.64bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	1,827	1,414	₦32.3bn	₦25.3bn	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,809	4,437	₦41.7bn	₦36.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	9,585	2,279	₦281m	₦281m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	8,419	3,559	₦4.57bn	₦4.53bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,484	734	₦867m	₦867m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,548	1,189	₦27.6bn	₦22.4bn	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	534	396	₦211m	₦211m	67%	1.6 yr
Apartment	484	155	₦198m	₦198m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial	383	319	₦3.51bn	₦2.66bn	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	278	234	₦6.23bn	₦5.11bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	93	82	₦342m	₦342m	85%	1.1 yr
Duplex	77	45	₦58.4m	₦58.4m	59%	1.9 yr
School	62	55	₦107m	₦107m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,033	13,658	₦85.9bn	₦73.1bn
Industrial	30	27	₦763m	₦756m
Allotments	5	0	₦34.8k	₦34.8k
Farmland	4	0	₦486k	₦486k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,779	11,867	₦49.8bn	₦44bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,945	1,520	₦31.1bn	₦25.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	348	298	₦5.79bn	₦4.81bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,650	6,589	₦48.4bn	₦42.1bn
0.0	9,572	2,256	₦268m	₦268m
2.0	5,719	2,087	₦6.09bn	₦5.61bn
4.0	3,604	1,453	₦8.22bn	₦8.19bn
1.0	1,772	745	₦635m	₦612m
5.0	582	415	₦13.1bn	₦10.7bn
6.0	173	140	₦10bn	₦6.45bn