Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Atiba, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Atiba has 40,579 buildings with a viable rooftop and 835 MWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦44bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,579

Usable roof area

3.72 km²

835 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦44bn/yr

36.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Atiba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦44bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.13tn

NPV₦321bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy26.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity127 MWp

Capex₦130bn

Year-one energy value₦109bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.09tn

NPV₦852bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Atiba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 127 MWp
Capital cost: ₦130bn
Year 1 savings: ₦109bn/yr
NPV: ₦852bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Atiba pays back quickly

Of the 40,407 buildings in Atiba with a modelled payback, 77.5% pay back inside five years and 42.8% inside three.

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How much of Atiba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Atiba consume 65.9 GWh/yr but want 92.7 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Atiba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Atiba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 40,407 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,579 in Atiba. 33,382 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,277 (43%)

Under 5 years31,301 (77%)

Under 7 years33,368 (83%)

Under 10 years34,798 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,437 (85%)

Above 15%33,382 (82%)

Above 20%31,946 (79%)

Above 25%29,898 (74%)

CO₂ avoided

73.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

304k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Atiba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Atiba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	21,625	11,910	₦26.9bn	₦26.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
E	11,960	1,835	₦12.5bn	₦9.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	6,994	4,555	₦4.58bn	₦4.55bn	43%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,777	16,822	₦37.8bn	₦34.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	941	787	₦4.33bn	₦4.33bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	450	337	₦89.4m	₦89.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	222	188	₦347m	₦344m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	132	113	₦1.34bn	₦1.32bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	39	37	₦41.7m	₦41.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	17	16	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦2.32m	₦2.32m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,662	8,989	₦24.8bn	₦23.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,577	3,560	₦465m	₦453m	13%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	6,443	2,400	₦2.7bn	₦2.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,597	1,595	₦775m	₦546m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,284	1,741	₦13.6bn	₦11.7bn	49%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	16	15	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	25,542	14,927	₦22.8bn	₦22.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Unclassified	11,127	1,817	₦13.3bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,228	1,205	₦6.47bn	₦6.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	682	351	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	41%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	14,545	7,809	₦7.93bn	₦7.91bn	35%	3.1 yr
Shed	6,952	1,131	₦182m	₦182m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential	4,870	2,002	₦21.7bn	₦18.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	4,663	1,152	₦2.98bn	₦2.64bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	3,664	2,117	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,438	1,949	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	49%	2.1 yr
Duplex	1,589	657	₦837m	₦837m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial	468	389	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	45%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	450	337	₦89.4m	₦89.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	269	245	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	194	154	₦943m	₦943m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	123	95	₦217m	₦214m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,579	18,300	₦44bn	₦40.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	39,469	17,348	₦38.7bn	₦35.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	756	651	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	354	301	₦1.69bn	₦1.66bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	19,279	10,663	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn
3.0	8,689	4,011	₦23.5bn	₦20.5bn
0.0	6,874	1,015	₦152m	₦152m
2.0	3,984	1,651	₦2.95bn	₦2.56bn
1.0	1,105	398	₦383m	₦324m
5.0	552	475	₦2.79bn	₦2.79bn
6.0	96	87	₦659m	₦659m