Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibarapa Central, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibarapa Central has 34,563 buildings with a viable rooftop and 750 MWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,563

Usable roof area

3.34 km²

750 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.1bn/yr

25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibarapa Central

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.5tn

NPV₦232bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity73.9 MWp

Capex₦77.5bn

Year-one energy value₦65.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.13tn

NPV₦524bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ibarapa Central's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 73.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦77.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦524bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibarapa Central pays back quickly

Of the 34,139 buildings in Ibarapa Central with a modelled payback, 71.3% pay back inside five years and 43.4% inside three.

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How much of Ibarapa Central's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibarapa Central consume 37.3 GWh/yr but want 54.9 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibarapa Central

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibarapa Central actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 34,139 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,563 in Ibarapa Central. 27,395 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,811 (43%)

Under 5 years24,340 (71%)

Under 7 years27,366 (80%)

Under 10 years29,205 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,904 (84%)

Above 15%27,395 (79%)

Above 20%25,349 (73%)

Above 25%20,369 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

51 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

144k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibarapa Central.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibarapa Central

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	17,640	8,199	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	16,922	7,446	₦16.8bn	₦16.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	1	0	₦1.14k	₦1.14k	1%	24.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	33,953	15,107	₦26.7bn	₦26.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	226	203	₦986m	₦986m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	214	178	₦1.24bn	₦1.22bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	71	68	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	38	35	₦18m	₦18m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	34	28	₦83.7m	₦83.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	22	21	₦50.9m	₦50.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	3	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	55%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,472	5,726	₦12bn	₦12bn	31%	3.4 yr
Under 30m2	9,271	3,159	₦335m	₦334m	11%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	5,710	2,601	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,207	1,716	₦403m	₦403m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,849	2,419	₦13.8bn	₦13.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	54	24	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	20,538	10,731	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	6,794	1,417	₦4.93bn	₦4.81bn	7%	12.9 yr
Urban	4,794	2,223	₦8.49bn	₦8.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	2,437	1,274	₦2.55bn	₦2.54bn	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	13,513	5,118	₦3.91bn	₦3.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,580	4,281	₦19.9bn	₦19.6bn	71%	1.4 yr
Shed	5,985	1,543	₦206m	₦206m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	5,218	3,109	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	2,623	1,044	₦822m	₦822m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	135	117	₦591m	₦591m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	77	68	₦304m	₦304m	77%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	71	68	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	39%	2.6 yr
School	60	54	₦208m	₦208m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial	56	52	₦420m	₦420m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	36	36	₦62.9m	₦62.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Duplex	30	10	₦8.12m	₦8.12m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,563	15,645	₦29.1bn	₦28.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	34,201	15,327	₦27.2bn	₦26.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	241	202	₦1.32bn	₦1.29bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	121	116	₦557m	₦557m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	16,805	6,697	₦5.84bn	₦5.83bn
3.0	10,762	6,924	₦22.5bn	₦22.2bn
0.0	5,986	1,544	₦206m	₦206m
2.0	762	374	₦178m	₦178m
1.0	173	35	₦17.9m	₦17.9m
5.0	44	43	₦140m	₦140m
6.0	31	28	₦203m	₦203m