Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Olorunsogo, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Olorunsogo has 27,588 buildings with a viable rooftop and 477 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

27,588

Usable roof area

2.13 km²

477 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.2bn/yr

22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Olorunsogo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.37tn

NPV₦208bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy24.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity96.2 MWp

Capex₦91.7bn

Year-one energy value₦75.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.58tn

NPV₦598bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Olorunsogo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 96.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦91.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦598bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Olorunsogo pays back quickly

Of the 27,232 buildings in Olorunsogo with a modelled payback, 61.6% pay back inside five years and 28.8% inside three.

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How much of Olorunsogo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Olorunsogo consume 45.8 GWh/yr but want 70.2 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Olorunsogo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Olorunsogo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 27,232 buildings with a modelled result out of 27,588 in Olorunsogo. 18,031 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,843 (29%)

Under 5 years16,764 (62%)

Under 7 years18,029 (66%)

Under 10 years18,819 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,568 (67%)

Above 15%18,031 (65%)

Above 20%17,194 (62%)

Above 25%15,830 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

48.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

169k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Olorunsogo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Olorunsogo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,195	6,314	₦20.4bn	₦20.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
E	12,393	1,443	₦4.81bn	₦4.79bn	7%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	24,753	5,826	₦15.4bn	₦15.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,747	1,171	₦8.37bn	₦8.37bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	759	532	₦204m	₦204m	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	198	152	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	89	44	₦109m	₦109m	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	28	25	₦18m	₦18m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	12	7	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	51%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.43m	₦1.43m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	8,874	1,154	₦217m	₦210m	5%	17.1 yr
100 250m2	7,136	3,122	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	5,448	1,572	₦1.61bn	₦1.59bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,173	880	₦343m	₦330m	11%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,942	1,024	₦11.1bn	₦11bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	15	5	₦138m	₦138m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	15,280	1,822	₦6.79bn	₦6.62bn	7%	13.6 yr
Urban Centre	9,798	4,953	₦15.9bn	₦15.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Urban	1,216	555	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	919	210	₦556m	₦556m	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	375	217	₦454m	₦454m	75%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	9,943	913	₦120m	₦120m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	6,582	2,019	₦1.87bn	₦1.83bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,706	2,435	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,526	229	₦243m	₦243m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	1,077	841	₦6.05bn	₦6.05bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	759	532	₦204m	₦204m	47%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	652	191	₦132m	₦132m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	477	206	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	220	20	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	189	126	₦529m	₦529m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	80	37	₦92.4m	₦92.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	74	55	₦279m	₦279m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	27,588	7,757	₦25.2bn	₦25bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	25,732	6,506	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,569	1,055	₦7.79bn	₦7.79bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	287	196	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	9,986	915	₦122m	₦122m
3.0	8,735	4,146	₦15.7bn	₦15.5bn
2.0	4,033	1,197	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
4.0	2,776	469	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn
5.0	919	640	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn
1.0	775	152	₦102m	₦98.4m
6.0	364	238	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn