Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Oyo East, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Oyo East has 41,071 buildings with a viable rooftop and 989 MWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦34.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

41,071

Usable roof area

4.4 km²

989 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦34.6bn/yr

30.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oyo East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦34.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.77tn

NPV₦261bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy26 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity104 MWp

Capex₦103bn

Year-one energy value₦72.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.38tn

NPV₦550bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oyo East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 104 MWp
Capital cost: ₦103bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦550bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oyo East pays back quickly

Of the 40,469 buildings in Oyo East with a modelled payback, 75.5% pay back inside five years and 39.5% inside three.

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How much of Oyo East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oyo East consume 62.8 GWh/yr but want 88.8 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oyo East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oyo East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 40,469 buildings with a modelled result out of 41,071 in Oyo East. 35,348 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,968 (39%)

Under 5 years30,571 (76%)

Under 7 years35,330 (87%)

Under 10 years37,520 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,241 (91%)

Above 15%35,348 (86%)

Above 20%32,150 (78%)

Above 25%26,964 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

61.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

145k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oyo East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oyo East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,769	11,738	₦19bn	₦18.8bn	33%	3.1 yr
D	19,251	6,720	₦11.5bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	2,051	538	₦4.1bn	₦3.94bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,509	17,806	₦22.2bn	₦21.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	680	515	₦6.28bn	₦6.22bn	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	325	209	₦3.85bn	₦3.83bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	271	256	₦103m	₦103m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	117	99	₦1.85bn	₦1.8bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	104	69	₦59.6m	₦59.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	32	16	₦39.9m	₦39.9m	35%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	24	19	₦227m	₦203m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	9	7	₦27.6m	₦27.6m	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,677	8,420	₦13.7bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,129	3,733	₦381m	₦378m	19%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	6,109	2,620	₦1.33bn	₦1.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,212	1,881	₦532m	₦409m	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,868	2,275	₦13.1bn	₦12.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	76	67	₦5.59bn	₦5.55bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	37,809	17,906	₦28.4bn	₦28.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,642	690	₦3.35bn	₦2.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	620	400	₦2.84bn	₦2.84bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	12,626	3,829	₦3.74bn	₦3.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	11,645	6,657	₦5.42bn	₦5.42bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential	5,069	2,745	₦10.3bn	₦9.68bn	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Small	4,127	1,741	₦1.35bn	₦1.19bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	3,346	1,330	₦127m	₦127m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	1,767	968	₦799m	₦799m	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	918	530	₦418m	₦418m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	307	255	₦4.31bn	₦4.28bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	267	253	₦89.3m	₦89.3m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	212	130	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	104	100	₦1.22bn	₦1.19bn	49%	2.1 yr
School	95	64	₦249m	₦249m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,918	18,972	₦34.4bn	₦33.4bn
Commercial	153	24	₦254m	₦254m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	40,165	18,300	₦23.3bn	₦22.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	465	389	₦5.67bn	₦5.62bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	441	307	₦5.7bn	₦5.63bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	19,961	9,876	₦13.8bn	₦13.7bn
3.0	11,960	5,328	₦13bn	₦12.3bn
2.0	4,760	1,869	₦767m	₦767m
0.0	3,148	1,319	₦124m	₦124m
1.0	821	226	₦56.7m	₦56.7m
5.0	276	239	₦2.11bn	₦2.1bn
6.0	145	139	₦4.73bn	₦4.64bn