Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Saki East, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Saki East has 29,872 buildings with a viable rooftop and 343 MWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

29,872

Usable roof area

1.54 km²

343 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.1bn/yr

12.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Saki East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦578bn

NPV₦91.1bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy6.57 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity30.8 MWp

Capex₦31.6bn

Year-one energy value₦28.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.37tn

NPV₦233bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Saki East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 30.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦31.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦28.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦233bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Saki East pays back quickly

Of the 29,385 buildings in Saki East with a modelled payback, 38.9% pay back inside five years and 25.3% inside three.

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How much of Saki East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Saki East consume 15.4 GWh/yr but want 22 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Saki East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Saki East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 29,385 buildings with a modelled result out of 29,872 in Saki East. 12,646 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,442 (25%)

Under 5 years11,426 (39%)

Under 7 years12,643 (43%)

Under 10 years13,799 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%13,501 (45%)

Above 15%12,646 (42%)

Above 20%11,852 (40%)

Above 25%10,500 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

18.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.57 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

60.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Saki East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Saki East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	25,050	6,220	₦9.77bn	₦9.76bn	7%	13.9 yr
D	4,822	1,360	₦1.37bn	₦1.36bn	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	29,131	7,006	₦6.26bn	₦6.26bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial General	281	248	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	191	98	₦68.4m	₦68.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	139	127	₦2.77bn	₦2.76bn	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	63	35	₦118m	₦118m	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	55	55	₦30.6m	₦30.6m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	9	8	₦529k	₦529k	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	15,394	1,303	₦161m	₦161m	3%	18.4 yr
100 250m2	4,970	3,109	₦4.32bn	₦4.32bn	63%	1.6 yr
30 50m2	4,306	981	₦198m	₦198m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	4,149	1,466	₦591m	₦591m	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,040	712	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	13	9	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	20,918	1,456	₦1.82bn	₦1.81bn	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,377	4,746	₦5.11bn	₦5.11bn	63%	1.6 yr
Urban	1,503	945	₦3.82bn	₦3.82bn	75%	1.4 yr
Rural	1,074	433	₦383m	₦383m	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	16,999	1,234	₦235m	₦235m	5%	17.9 yr
Residential Small	4,778	1,457	₦579m	₦579m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	3,989	2,010	₦4.55bn	₦4.55bn	75%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,906	2,021	₦784m	₦784m	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	283	181	₦73m	₦73m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	201	138	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	129	129	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	71%	1.4 yr
Duplex	124	96	₦38.4m	₦38.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	67	34	₦20m	₦20m	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	64	63	₦31.2m	₦31.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	63	35	₦118m	₦118m	43%	2.6 yr
Place Of Worship	63	34	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	29,872	7,580	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	29,532	7,280	₦6.91bn	₦6.91bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	202	162	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	138	138	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	16,922	1,116	₦198m	₦198m
3.0	4,985	3,060	₦8.23bn	₦8.23bn
4.0	3,130	2,190	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn
2.0	3,029	848	₦692m	₦688m
1.0	1,806	366	₦143m	₦143m