Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Orelope, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Orelope has 36,432 buildings with a viable rooftop and 540 MWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

36,432

Usable roof area

2.41 km²

540 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.4bn/yr

35.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orelope

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦37.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.94tn

NPV₦308bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy19.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity81.5 MWp

Capex₦84.2bn

Year-one energy value₦79bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.75tn

NPV₦637bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orelope's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 81.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦79bn/yr
NPV: ₦637bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orelope pays back quickly

Of the 36,088 buildings in Orelope with a modelled payback, 54.2% pay back inside five years and 34.4% inside three.

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How much of Orelope's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orelope consume 48.1 GWh/yr but want 67.3 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orelope

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orelope actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 36,088 buildings with a modelled result out of 36,432 in Orelope. 20,874 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,420 (34%)

Under 5 years19,558 (54%)

Under 7 years20,873 (58%)

Under 10 years21,988 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,651 (59%)

Above 15%20,874 (57%)

Above 20%19,959 (55%)

Above 25%18,669 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

63.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

178k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orelope.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orelope

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	20,159	5,125	₦22.7bn	₦22.3bn	7%	14.6 yr
D	16,273	7,861	₦15.6bn	₦15.3bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	35,340	12,035	₦31.9bn	₦31.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	503	455	₦3.91bn	₦3.91bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	212	210	₦108m	₦108m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	195	153	₦2.09bn	₦1.75bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	81	55	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	79	63	₦285m	₦283m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	21	14	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦495k	₦495k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	15,977	2,807	₦450m	₦441m	5%	17.1 yr
100 250m2	8,201	5,012	₦18.9bn	₦18.7bn	53%	2.1 yr
50 100m2	5,499	2,423	₦2.24bn	₦2.23bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	4,704	1,380	₦501m	₦501m	13%	7.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,037	1,356	₦15.2bn	₦14.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	14	8	₦1.16bn	₦903m	37%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	17,178	1,251	₦5.1bn	₦4.7bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban Centre	15,196	9,570	₦24.3bn	₦24.3bn	45%	2.4 yr
Urban	2,818	2,142	₦8.92bn	₦8.59bn	77%	1.4 yr
Rural	1,240	23	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	15,590	1,598	₦254m	₦254m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,694	3,506	₦2.63bn	₦2.62bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	5,759	3,051	₦2.97bn	₦2.97bn	63%	1.6 yr
Residential	5,476	3,561	₦25.7bn	₦25.3bn	77%	1.4 yr
Apartment	788	301	₦339m	₦339m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	244	244	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	73%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	212	210	₦108m	₦108m	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	169	133	₦775m	₦775m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	121	103	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	64	47	₦363m	₦363m	75%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	55	41	₦215m	₦214m	73%	1.4 yr
School	52	40	₦169m	₦169m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	36,432	12,986	₦38.4bn	₦37.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,772	12,409	₦32.7bn	₦32.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	386	361	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	274	216	₦2.37bn	₦2.04bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	15,493	1,495	₦235m	₦235m
4.0	8,055	3,513	₦5.5bn	₦5.47bn
3.0	6,771	4,929	₦29.7bn	₦29bn
2.0	4,057	2,222	₦2.5bn	₦2.5bn
1.0	2,042	825	₦340m	₦335m
5.0	13	2	₦88.1m	₦88.1m
6.0	1	0	₦6.93m	₦6.93m