Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ogbomosho South, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ogbomosho South has 31,394 buildings with a viable rooftop and 797 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,394

Usable roof area

3.54 km²

797 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.2bn/yr

15 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogbomosho South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.03tn

NPV₦158bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy20.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity72.8 MWp

Capex₦73.3bn

Year-one energy value₦61.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.93tn

NPV₦490bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ogbomosho South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 72.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦73.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦490bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogbomosho South pays back quickly

Of the 30,914 buildings in Ogbomosho South with a modelled payback, 75.8% pay back inside five years and 30.8% inside three.

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How much of Ogbomosho South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogbomosho South consume 34.1 GWh/yr but want 54.6 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogbomosho South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogbomosho South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 30,914 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,394 in Ogbomosho South. 26,594 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,515 (31%)

Under 5 years23,435 (76%)

Under 7 years26,605 (86%)

Under 10 years28,866 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,496 (91%)

Above 15%26,594 (85%)

Above 20%24,293 (77%)

Above 25%21,573 (69%)

CO₂ avoided

38.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.03 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

131k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogbomosho South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ogbomosho South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,375	4,916	₦7.78bn	₦7.76bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	9,688	2,365	₦4.32bn	₦4.32bn	29%	3.9 yr
E	6,331	3,025	₦7.08bn	₦6.77bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	29,760	9,567	₦14.8bn	₦14.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	935	440	₦2.77bn	₦2.77bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	282	114	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	277	130	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	68	19	₦28m	₦28m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	43	25	₦89.4m	₦89.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	20	7	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	6	3	₦7.08m	₦7.08m	37%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦6.63m	₦6.63m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦150k	₦150k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,263	4,651	₦9.9bn	₦9.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	5,997	1,872	₦187m	₦187m	15%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	5,296	1,643	₦962m	₦943m	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,630	1,186	₦6.85bn	₦6.53bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	3,146	938	₦198m	₦198m	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	62	16	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,296	8,905	₦13.5bn	₦13.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	1,895	1,051	₦4.78bn	₦4.47bn	75%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	1,203	350	₦858m	₦839m	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	7,710	2,542	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	6,729	832	₦525m	₦525m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,156	2,824	₦10.8bn	₦10.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	4,691	1,967	₦1.44bn	₦1.42bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	2,683	812	₦92m	₦92m	13%	7.9 yr
Apartment	1,090	350	₦227m	₦227m	29%	3.9 yr
Duplex	696	240	₦150m	₦150m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	635	303	₦2bn	₦2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	282	114	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	173	81	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	145	62	₦285m	₦285m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	81	45	₦239m	₦239m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,392	10,306	₦19.2bn	₦18.9bn
Allotments	2	0	₦23.3k	₦23.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	30,412	9,836	₦15.7bn	₦15.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	662	315	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	320	155	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	12,234	3,361	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn
3.0	11,488	4,471	₦13.2bn	₦12.9bn
2.0	3,947	1,228	₦565m	₦547m
0.0	2,639	808	₦91.6m	₦91.6m
1.0	746	263	₦35.4m	₦35.4m
5.0	332	171	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
6.0	8	4	₦147m	₦147m