Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Kajola, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Kajola has 40,102 buildings with a viable rooftop and 809 MWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,102

Usable roof area

3.6 km²

809 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.8bn/yr

56.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kajola

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦61.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.14tn

NPV₦498bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy30.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity134 MWp

Capex₦141bn

Year-one energy value₦128bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.09tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kajola's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 134 MWp
Capital cost: ₦141bn
Year 1 savings: ₦128bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kajola pays back quickly

Of the 39,375 buildings in Kajola with a modelled payback, 70.7% pay back inside five years and 44.7% inside three.

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How much of Kajola's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kajola consume 74.5 GWh/yr but want 105 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kajola

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kajola actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 39,375 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,102 in Kajola. 30,116 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,610 (45%)

Under 5 years27,838 (71%)

Under 7 years30,100 (76%)

Under 10 years31,546 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,300 (78%)

Above 15%30,116 (75%)

Above 20%28,508 (71%)

Above 25%26,441 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

105 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

306k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kajola.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kajola

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	25,204	12,503	₦45.9bn	₦44bn	27%	2.1 yr
D	14,898	5,466	₦17.9bn	₦17.5bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,268	17,193	₦59.3bn	₦57.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Anchor	302	277	₦2.2bn	₦1.93bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	287	271	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	98	90	₦126m	₦126m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	63	56	₦212m	₦211m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	51	51	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	31	29	₦52.1m	₦51.8m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	45%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	12,897	3,682	₦581m	₦579m	7%	13.6 yr
100 250m2	12,490	7,070	₦33.7bn	₦32.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	6,353	3,210	₦3.41bn	₦3.28bn	33%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	4,687	1,919	₦696m	₦696m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,655	2,077	₦24.7bn	₦23.4bn	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	20	11	₦689m	₦620m	51%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	17,918	8,455	₦17.6bn	₦17.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	11,155	1,225	₦8.95bn	₦7.44bn	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	7,303	5,260	₦22.2bn	₦22bn	63%	1.6 yr
Urban	3,726	3,029	₦15bn	₦14.4bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	11,090	2,675	₦398m	₦398m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Formal	9,595	3,841	₦5.45bn	₦5.45bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,980	5,647	₦46.8bn	₦44.9bn	75%	1.4 yr
Residential Small	6,469	3,924	₦4.51bn	₦4.38bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential Informal	3,319	753	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	448	167	₦342m	₦342m	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	367	186	₦410m	₦410m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	225	208	₦1.3bn	₦1.24bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	106	105	₦984m	₦984m	71%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	96	92	₦499m	₦499m	81%	1.4 yr
School	83	80	₦256m	₦256m	81%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	51	51	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,090	17,964	₦63.7bn	₦61.4bn
Commercial	12	5	₦60.1m	₦60.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	39,599	17,501	₦60.3bn	₦58.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	365	333	₦2.42bn	₦2.14bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	138	135	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,969	8,404	₦51bn	₦49bn
0.0	10,891	2,654	₦384m	₦384m
4.0	10,199	4,031	₦8.33bn	₦8.33bn
2.0	4,733	2,418	₦3.57bn	₦3.23bn
1.0	1,294	446	₦297m	₦291m
5.0	16	16	₦185m	₦185m