Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ogo Oluwa, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ogo Oluwa has 22,111 buildings with a viable rooftop and 466 MWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

22,111

Usable roof area

2.08 km²

466 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.4bn/yr

22.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogo Oluwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.16tn

NPV₦183bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy12.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity70.2 MWp

Capex₦71.9bn

Year-one energy value₦66.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.13tn

NPV₦531bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ogo Oluwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 70.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦71.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦531bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogo Oluwa pays back quickly

Of the 21,902 buildings in Ogo Oluwa with a modelled payback, 74.5% pay back inside five years and 41.0% inside three.

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How much of Ogo Oluwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogo Oluwa consume 30.9 GWh/yr but want 43.5 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogo Oluwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogo Oluwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,902 buildings with a modelled result out of 22,111 in Ogo Oluwa. 17,802 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,989 (41%)

Under 5 years16,319 (75%)

Under 7 years17,796 (81%)

Under 10 years18,926 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,659 (84%)

Above 15%17,802 (81%)

Above 20%16,810 (76%)

Above 25%14,964 (68%)

CO₂ avoided

38.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

159k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogo Oluwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ogo Oluwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,353	6,150	₦18.5bn	₦18.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	4,679	2,914	₦4.86bn	₦4.49bn	55%	1.9 yr
C	79	1	₦19m	₦19m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	21,104	8,089	₦17.5bn	₦16.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	507	494	₦3.6bn	₦3.55bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	227	220	₦1.88bn	₦1.79bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	214	207	₦74.2m	₦74.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	42	39	₦309m	₦308m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	12	11	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	3	3	₦2.56m	₦2.56m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.28m	₦1.28m	53%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,506	3,943	₦12.5bn	₦12bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	4,701	1,648	₦250m	₦246m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	4,154	1,724	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,329	934	₦271m	₦271m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,400	806	₦7.61bn	₦7.47bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	21	10	₦1.48bn	₦1.43bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	6,952	2,052	₦8.31bn	₦7.75bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,698	3,721	₦6.85bn	₦6.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
Urban	3,851	1,585	₦3.75bn	₦3.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,115	1,690	₦4.35bn	₦4.3bn	69%	1.6 yr
Urban Centre	2,492	15	₦139m	₦139m	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	3	2	₦723k	₦723k	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	7,574	3,262	₦14.8bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	5,943	2,569	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,545	1,199	₦159m	₦159m	7%	13.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,341	875	₦757m	₦595m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	580	139	₦121m	₦121m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	237	234	₦2.62bn	₦2.57bn	61%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	214	207	₦74.2m	₦74.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	148	143	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	117	115	₦133m	₦133m	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	115	42	₦40m	₦38.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	72	70	₦383m	₦383m	85%	1.1 yr
School	57	54	₦185m	₦185m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	22,111	9,065	₦23.4bn	₦22.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,475	8,445	₦18.4bn	₦17.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	367	361	₦2.78bn	₦2.73bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	269	259	₦2.19bn	₦2.1bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,926	4,996	₦18.1bn	₦17.7bn
0.0	4,537	1,194	₦155m	₦155m
4.0	2,960	1,105	₦2.33bn	₦2.16bn
2.0	2,937	1,304	₦1.53bn	₦1.46bn
1.0	558	275	₦142m	₦141m
5.0	170	168	₦874m	₦824m
6.0	23	23	₦231m	₦231m