Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Katsina State: buildings, spend and payback

3,594,546 buildings in Katsina State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.11tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 16% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

3,594,546

Usable roof area

138 km²

30.7 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.11tn/yr

1.05 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Katsina

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.11tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.01tn

Lifetime cash saved₦52.2tn

NPV₦8.11tn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy747 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.6 GWp

Capex₦3.83tn

Year-one energy value₦3.8tn

Lifetime energy value₦178tn

NPV₦30.6tn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Katsina State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.6 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.83tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.8tn/yr
NPV: ₦30.6tn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Katsina State pays back quickly

Of the 3,555,458 buildings in Katsina State with a modelled payback, 39.6% pay back inside five years and 15.4% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

39.6%

Payback under 3 years

15.4%

IRR above 20%

42.3%

Under 3 years · 15%3 – 5 years · 24%5 – 7 years · 11%7 – 10 years · 13%Over 10 years · 37%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Katsina State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Katsina State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Katsina State consume 2.11 TWh/yr but want 2.85 TWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 74%Suppressed · 26%

Energy wanted

2.85 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.11 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

747 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Katsina State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 3,555,458 buildings with a modelled result out of 3,594,546 in Katsina State. 1,785,795 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years548,812 (15%)

Under 5 years1,406,330 (40%)

Under 7 years1,789,732 (50%)

Under 10 years2,236,772 (63%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%2,098,538 (58%)

Above 15%1,785,795 (50%)

Above 20%1,519,554 (42%)

Above 25%1,206,249 (34%)

Electricity billing bands in Katsina State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Katsina State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	968,966	125,133	₦269bn	₦238bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	883,208	135,812	₦273bn	₦246bn	13%	8.1 yr
E	838,251	102,578	₦217bn	₦192bn	9%	9.9 yr
A	478,678	111,144	₦178bn	₦171bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	425,443	82,548	₦174bn	₦160bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	3,548,230	525,659	₦573bn	₦558bn	15%	7.1 yr
Commercial General	15,536	10,416	₦71.2bn	₦69.4bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	15,030	9,810	₦3.06bn	₦3.06bn	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	12,615	9,018	₦461bn	₦374bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	2,630	2,052	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	350	174	₦420m	₦419m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	76	50	₦573m	₦563m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	36	18	₦57m	₦57m	39%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	34	13	₦111m	₦111m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	8	4	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	43%	2.4 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦106k	₦106k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,793,380	210,053	₦25.4bn	₦25.2bn	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	795,280	123,373	₦28.5bn	₦28.1bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	603,294	112,919	₦70.6bn	₦69.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	292,502	73,736	₦171bn	₦164bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	97,490	31,037	₦286bn	₦280bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	12,600	6,097	₦530bn	₦441bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	1,675,041	307,145	₦548bn	₦497bn	11%	8.9 yr
Unclassified	707,194	27,956	₦152bn	₦136bn	7%	14.4 yr
Urban Centre	498,261	120,499	₦160bn	₦157bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	442,175	80,116	₦154bn	₦139bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	271,875	21,499	₦97bn	₦78.8bn	11%	8.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	2,087,761	246,453	₦31.7bn	₦31.7bn	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Informal	613,260	126,900	₦110bn	₦110bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	526,091	95,587	₦69.6bn	₦67.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	245,515	53,670	₦359bn	₦346bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	74,979	2,857	₦1.95bn	₦1.94bn	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	15,023	9,806	₦3.05bn	₦3.05bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	8,388	5,976	₦440bn	₦356bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,166	3,939	₦35.9bn	₦34.7bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	3,468	2,287	₦19bn	₦18.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	3,339	2,456	₦5.85bn	₦5.85bn	89%	1.1 yr
School	2,183	1,526	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	2,071	1,489	₦15.4bn	₦14.3bn	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	3,592,470	557,066	₦1.11tn	₦1tn
Farmland	1,894	0	₦8.81m	₦8.81m
Industrial	106	75	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn
Farmyard	74	74	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn
Orchard	2	0	₦1.94k	₦1.94k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	3,572,099	541,866	₦594bn	₦579bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	12,673	9,054	₦461bn	₦374bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	9,774	6,295	₦55.5bn	₦53.9bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,965,118	226,149	₦28.9bn	₦28.9bn
2.0	569,940	108,884	₦82.3bn	₦80.3bn
3.0	481,713	111,379	₦614bn	₦555bn
1.0	341,804	60,554	₦23.9bn	₦23.5bn
4.0	232,251	48,040	₦325bn	₦285bn
5.0	3,040	1,721	₦22.1bn	₦20.7bn
6.0	680	488	₦15.1bn	₦14.9bn