Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Bindawa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Bindawa has 92,743 buildings with a viable rooftop and 448 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.64bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

92,743

Usable roof area

2.04 km²

448 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.64bn/yr

3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bindawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.64bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.55bn

Lifetime cash saved₦264bn

NPV₦35.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.68 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.3 MWp

Capex₦63bn

Year-one energy value₦72bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.42tn

NPV₦595bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bindawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72bn/yr
NPV: ₦595bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bindawa pays back quickly

Of the 92,565 buildings in Bindawa with a modelled payback, 24.2% pay back inside five years and 2.8% inside three.

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How much of Bindawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bindawa consume 11.3 GWh/yr but want 19 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bindawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bindawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 92,565 buildings with a modelled result out of 92,743 in Bindawa. 29,297 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,614 (3%)

Under 5 years22,440 (24%)

Under 7 years29,336 (32%)

Under 10 years38,685 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,247 (37%)

Above 15%29,297 (32%)

Above 20%24,441 (26%)

Above 25%19,672 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

10.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.66 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.68 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

256k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bindawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bindawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,224	1,033	₦1.52bn	₦1.46bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	27,802	570	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	9%	13.1 yr
E	27,689	385	₦1.08bn	₦1.05bn	7%	14.9 yr
B	7,028	528	₦928m	₦928m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,971	2,006	₦3.84bn	₦3.75bn	7%	14.1 yr
Anchor	272	183	₦435m	₦435m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	213	148	₦307m	₦307m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	149	58	₦8.85m	₦8.85m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	133	118	₦41.6m	₦41.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	56,768	1,056	₦233m	₦233m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	21,317	504	₦412m	₦412m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	11,986	490	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,438	388	₦1.68bn	₦1.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	226	73	₦762m	₦762m	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	5	₦220m	₦220m	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	69,379	1,745	₦3.1bn	₦3.04bn	7%	14.4 yr
Unclassified	11,465	49	₦371m	₦336m	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,054	710	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	1,845	12	₦50.2m	₦50.2m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	67,036	1,165	₦248m	₦248m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	17,731	500	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	3,816	139	₦1.51bn	₦1.42bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,458	0	₦49.9m	₦49.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	929	202	₦487m	₦487m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	193	139	₦342m	₦342m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	149	58	₦8.85m	₦8.85m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	93	68	₦103m	₦103m	91%	1.1 yr
School	70	49	₦57.1m	₦57.1m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	67	41	₦160m	₦160m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	46	40	₦13m	₦13m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	43	39	₦6.09m	₦6.09m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,743	2,516	₦4.64bn	₦4.55bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	92,408	2,285	₦4.13bn	₦4.04bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	277	186	₦436m	₦436m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	58	45	₦66.8m	₦66.8m	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	67,050	1,175	₦248m	₦248m
2.0	11,056	515	₦1.41bn	₦1.38bn
3.0	6,857	479	₦2.11bn	₦2.05bn
1.0	5,722	268	₦493m	₦493m
4.0	2,057	78	₦358m	₦358m
5.0	1	1	₦13.9m	₦13.9m