Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kafur, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kafur has 149,865 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.64 GWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦112bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

149,865

Usable roof area

7.34 km²

1.64 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦112bn/yr

127 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kafur

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦112bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦96.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.75tn

NPV₦776bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy50.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity223 MWp

Capex₦236bn

Year-one energy value₦232bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.7tn

NPV₦1.85tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kafur's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 223 MWp
Capital cost: ₦236bn
Year 1 savings: ₦232bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.85tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kafur pays back quickly

Of the 149,070 buildings in Kafur with a modelled payback, 50.1% pay back inside five years and 29.5% inside three.

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How much of Kafur's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kafur consume 190 GWh/yr but want 240 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kafur

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kafur actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 149,070 buildings with a modelled result out of 149,865 in Kafur. 91,409 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years43,964 (29%)

Under 5 years74,715 (50%)

Under 7 years91,555 (61%)

Under 10 years112,221 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%106,836 (71%)

Above 15%91,409 (61%)

Above 20%80,432 (54%)

Above 25%63,897 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

153 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

44.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

50.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

340k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kafur.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kafur

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	56,697	16,857	₦48.7bn	₦42.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	47,539	13,392	₦31.4bn	₦27.2bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	41,771	14,116	₦31.5bn	₦25.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	3,858	32	₦676m	₦676m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	148,844	43,482	₦39.3bn	₦39.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
Anchor	717	646	₦72.1bn	₦56.2bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	164	150	₦289m	₦289m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	131	112	₦585m	₦585m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	8	6	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦982k	₦982k	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	64,876	16,629	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	9%	9.9 yr
30 50m2	33,692	10,017	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	30,044	9,745	₦3.63bn	₦3.63bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	13,185	4,679	₦6.59bn	₦6.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,510	2,416	₦17.2bn	₦17.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,558	911	₦81.2bn	₦65.4bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	81,164	32,465	₦61.2bn	₦54.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	36,254	3,036	₦15.7bn	₦13.1bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	22,616	5,751	₦30.2bn	₦23.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,831	3,145	₦5.15bn	₦4.91bn	23%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	83,315	22,282	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	11%	8.9 yr
Residential Informal	29,308	8,312	₦7.03bn	₦7.03bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	25,323	8,835	₦3.84bn	₦3.84bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	10,898	4,053	₦25.5bn	₦25.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	634	571	₦71.2bn	₦55.4bn	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	128	117	₦329m	₦329m	91%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	77	71	₦78.7m	₦78.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	72	64	₦986m	₦984m	61%	1.6 yr
School	37	33	₦113m	₦113m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	36	32	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	18	13	₦207m	₦189m	41%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	8	6	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	149,865	44,397	₦112bn	₦96.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	149,141	43,746	₦40.2bn	₦40.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Enterprise	723	651	₦72.1bn	₦56.3bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	1	0	₦33k	₦33k	31%	3.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	75,827	20,391	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn
2.0	31,174	10,153	₦5.25bn	₦5.25bn
3.0	19,097	7,285	₦69bn	₦59bn
1.0	18,448	4,787	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn
4.0	5,319	1,781	₦33.9bn	₦28bn