Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Bakori, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Bakori has 121,095 buildings with a viable rooftop and 872 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

121,095

Usable roof area

3.96 km²

872 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.2bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bakori

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦859bn

NPV₦130bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.7 MWp

Capex₦96.8bn

Year-one energy value₦106bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.04tn

NPV₦872bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bakori's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦96.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦106bn/yr
NPV: ₦872bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bakori pays back quickly

Of the 119,618 buildings in Bakori with a modelled payback, 33.9% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Bakori's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bakori consume 29.1 GWh/yr but want 42.7 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bakori

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bakori actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 119,618 buildings with a modelled result out of 121,095 in Bakori. 55,077 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,452 (8%)

Under 5 years40,582 (34%)

Under 7 years55,244 (46%)

Under 10 years75,809 (63%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,450 (57%)

Above 15%55,077 (45%)

Above 20%44,281 (37%)

Above 25%35,090 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

29.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

307k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bakori.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bakori

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	33,925	2,508	₦4.89bn	₦4.86bn	13%	7.4 yr
D	32,574	2,722	₦2.48bn	₦2.45bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	29,933	1,570	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	9%	9.6 yr
B	17,422	1,500	₦4.29bn	₦4.23bn	19%	5.6 yr
A	7,241	975	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	119,472	7,977	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn	11%	8.4 yr
Commercial Retail	611	473	₦207m	₦207m	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	564	461	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	418	341	₦1.14bn	₦1.09bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	21	18	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	5	₦5.07m	₦5.07m	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	57,859	3,343	₦532m	₦531m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	29,377	2,182	₦919m	₦919m	13%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	24,836	2,122	₦3bn	₦2.97bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	7,968	1,275	₦4.47bn	₦4.47bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,035	340	₦5.81bn	₦5.73bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	20	13	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	48,497	6,393	₦9.62bn	₦9.59bn	13%	7.4 yr
Unclassified	31,575	348	₦1.96bn	₦1.9bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	17,457	951	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	17%	6.1 yr
Rural	13,594	352	₦683m	₦683m	11%	8.9 yr
Urban Centre	9,972	1,231	₦2.71bn	₦2.68bn	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,977	3,761	₦531m	₦531m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	28,151	2,835	₦3.39bn	₦3.36bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	10,180	201	₦177m	₦177m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential	9,239	1,180	₦6.68bn	₦6.65bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,892	0	₦70.5m	₦70.5m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	611	473	₦207m	₦207m	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	250	203	₦3.37bn	₦3.36bn	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	228	189	₦542m	₦542m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	137	112	₦222m	₦222m	93%	1.1 yr
School	104	84	₦107m	₦107m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	94	76	₦468m	₦418m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	81	67	₦216m	₦215m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	121,095	9,275	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,359	8,665	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	11%	8.4 yr
Enterprise	419	342	₦1.14bn	₦1.09bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	317	268	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,642	3,763	₦529m	₦529m
2.0	21,540	1,975	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn
3.0	17,501	2,292	₦8.8bn	₦8.7bn
1.0	8,751	1,104	₦915m	₦915m
4.0	8,629	123	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn
5.0	32	18	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn