Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kankara, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kankara has 148,625 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.26 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦65.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

148,625

Usable roof area

5.67 km²

1.26 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦65.5bn/yr

65.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.4 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kankara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦65.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦57.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.87tn

NPV₦469bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.4 yr

Unlocked energy30.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity169 MWp

Capex₦181bn

Year-one energy value₦201bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.42tn

NPV₦1.64tn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kankara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 169 MWp
Capital cost: ₦181bn
Year 1 savings: ₦201bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.64tn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kankara pays back quickly

Of the 147,499 buildings in Kankara with a modelled payback, 41.6% pay back inside five years and 19.8% inside three.

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How much of Kankara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kankara consume 97.6 GWh/yr but want 128 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kankara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kankara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 147,499 buildings with a modelled result out of 148,625 in Kankara. 75,665 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years29,196 (20%)

Under 5 years61,431 (42%)

Under 7 years75,790 (51%)

Under 10 years99,323 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%92,173 (62%)

Above 15%75,665 (51%)

Above 20%65,775 (44%)

Above 25%53,621 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

96.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

457k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kankara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kankara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	48,702	8,789	₦21.8bn	₦18.3bn	11%	9.1 yr
C	42,722	8,763	₦19.5bn	₦17.3bn	17%	6.1 yr
E	38,899	9,703	₦20bn	₦17.6bn	15%	6.6 yr
B	18,302	2,034	₦4.25bn	₦4.18bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	147,693	28,463	₦41.8bn	₦40.2bn	15%	6.6 yr
Anchor	490	404	₦22.5bn	₦16.1bn	69%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	231	229	₦63.2m	₦63.2m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	204	186	₦1.04bn	₦1000m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	6	6	₦50.6m	₦50.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦441k	₦441k	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	72,576	12,382	₦1.49bn	₦1.47bn	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	32,501	6,716	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	26,549	5,875	₦4.35bn	₦4.28bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	11,418	2,705	₦9.3bn	₦8.96bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,862	1,300	₦18.9bn	₦18.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	719	311	₦29.9bn	₦23bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	69,384	21,343	₦39.1bn	₦34.5bn	21%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	33,760	1,425	₦11.1bn	₦9.96bn	9%	13.6 yr
Rural	24,036	2,062	₦7.57bn	₦5.97bn	13%	8.1 yr
Urban Centre	15,908	1,378	₦3.4bn	₦3.39bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	5,537	3,081	₦4.32bn	₦3.6bn	47%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	89,073	15,729	₦2bn	₦2bn	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Small	26,201	6,593	₦4.84bn	₦4.77bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	20,082	3,127	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	12,337	3,014	₦32.2bn	₦30.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	277	227	₦21.9bn	₦15.5bn	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	231	229	₦63.2m	₦63.2m	73%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	101	92	₦235m	₦235m	97%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	92	71	₦500m	₦500m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	84	84	₦667m	₦628m	75%	1.4 yr
Clinic	72	57	₦215m	₦209m	59%	1.9 yr
School	67	60	₦95.9m	₦95.9m	95%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	2	2	₦1.26m	₦1.26m	63%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	148,625	29,289	₦65.5bn	₦57.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	148,050	28,800	₦42.3bn	₦40.7bn	15%	6.6 yr
Enterprise	491	405	₦22.5bn	₦16.1bn	69%	1.4 yr
SME High	84	84	₦667m	₦628m	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	85,465	15,639	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn
2.0	22,537	5,034	₦4.74bn	₦4.61bn
3.0	20,264	5,229	₦50.1bn	₦43.4bn
1.0	15,996	2,708	₦1.88bn	₦1.78bn
4.0	4,355	671	₦6.53bn	₦5.41bn
5.0	8	8	₦337m	₦298m