Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Dutsin Ma, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Dutsin Ma has 133,074 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.32 GWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦68.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

133,074

Usable roof area

5.93 km²

1.32 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦68.3bn/yr

62 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dutsin Ma

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦68.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.04tn

NPV₦479bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy33.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity163 MWp

Capex₦173bn

Year-one energy value₦164bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.65tn

NPV₦1.31tn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dutsin Ma's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 163 MWp
Capital cost: ₦173bn
Year 1 savings: ₦164bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.31tn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dutsin Ma pays back quickly

Of the 131,492 buildings in Dutsin Ma with a modelled payback, 46.8% pay back inside five years and 24.2% inside three.

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How much of Dutsin Ma's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dutsin Ma consume 119 GWh/yr but want 153 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dutsin Ma

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dutsin Ma actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 131,492 buildings with a modelled result out of 133,074 in Dutsin Ma. 78,642 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,828 (24%)

Under 5 years61,484 (47%)

Under 7 years78,806 (60%)

Under 10 years95,600 (73%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%91,344 (69%)

Above 15%78,642 (59%)

Above 20%66,888 (50%)

Above 25%51,993 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

103 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

326k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dutsin Ma.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dutsin Ma

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	32,517	6,719	₦10.4bn	₦9.72bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	30,823	7,191	₦15.1bn	₦13.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	27,957	4,246	₦14.9bn	₦12.4bn	11%	8.4 yr
D	23,030	4,511	₦11.4bn	₦9.92bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	18,747	9,421	₦16.5bn	₦14.2bn	33%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	132,085	31,349	₦42.6bn	₦39.7bn	19%	5.4 yr
Anchor	412	248	₦23.1bn	₦17.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	297	249	₦153m	₦153m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	253	220	₦2.39bn	₦2.19bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	23	19	₦24.6m	₦24.6m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦661k	₦661k	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	63,122	12,063	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn	9%	9.9 yr
30 50m2	29,755	7,313	₦1.65bn	₦1.4bn	19%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	21,407	5,988	₦2.92bn	₦2.72bn	25%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	12,204	4,292	₦9.93bn	₦9.33bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,777	2,113	₦23.4bn	₦21.6bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	809	319	₦28.9bn	₦23.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	43,966	11,235	₦18.3bn	₦16.3bn	15%	6.9 yr
Urban Centre	40,715	12,981	₦18.6bn	₦17.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	23,276	1,393	₦9.09bn	₦8.55bn	9%	13.6 yr
Rural	17,455	3,627	₦14.7bn	₦11.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	7,662	2,852	₦7.64bn	₦5.87bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	79,252	16,423	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Informal	35,221	10,570	₦14.1bn	₦14.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	10,034	2,380	₦2.32bn	₦1.86bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	7,578	1,976	₦24bn	₦21.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	297	249	₦153m	₦153m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	295	154	₦22bn	₦16.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	165	154	₦2.04bn	₦1.85bn	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	100	85	₦270m	₦270m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	64	51	₦837m	₦698m	57%	1.9 yr
School	19	15	₦41.3m	₦41.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	12	9	₦6.87m	₦6.87m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	12	8	₦290m	₦197m	43%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	133,074	32,088	₦68.3bn	₦59.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	132,493	31,683	₦43.1bn	₦40.2bn	21%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	416	251	₦23.1bn	₦17.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	165	154	₦2.04bn	₦1.85bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,788	13,267	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn
2.0	27,333	7,475	₦6.56bn	₦6.1bn
1.0	20,408	4,520	₦1.28bn	₦1.26bn
3.0	14,542	5,068	₦32.6bn	₦29.4bn
4.0	4,968	1,725	₦25bn	₦20.2bn
5.0	31	30	₦897m	₦720m
6.0	4	3	₦192m	₦186m