Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Batagarawa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Batagarawa has 117,151 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.1 GWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

117,151

Usable roof area

4.95 km²

1.1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.8bn/yr

40.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Batagarawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦42.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.29tn

NPV₦346bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy30.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity137 MWp

Capex₦143bn

Year-one energy value₦129bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.11tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Batagarawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 137 MWp
Capital cost: ₦143bn
Year 1 savings: ₦129bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Batagarawa pays back quickly

Of the 116,776 buildings in Batagarawa with a modelled payback, 45.9% pay back inside five years and 14.0% inside three.

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How much of Batagarawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Batagarawa consume 85.6 GWh/yr but want 116 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Batagarawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Batagarawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 116,776 buildings with a modelled result out of 117,151 in Batagarawa. 70,400 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,294 (14%)

Under 5 years53,622 (46%)

Under 7 years70,560 (60%)

Under 10 years84,633 (72%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%80,503 (69%)

Above 15%70,400 (60%)

Above 20%58,487 (50%)

Above 25%46,315 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

76.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

305k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Batagarawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Batagarawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	37,195	10,400	₦23.3bn	₦22.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
B	25,939	3,095	₦14bn	₦13.8bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	19,268	1,537	₦3.65bn	₦3.65bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	19,235	678	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	15,514	158	₦1.62bn	₦1.35bn	7%	14.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	113,347	13,569	₦23bn	₦22.4bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,910	1,196	₦301m	₦301m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	1,369	763	₦6.52bn	₦6.46bn	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	369	252	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	98	64	₦43m	₦43m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	47	18	₦116m	₦115m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	6	2	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦2.8m	₦2.8m	43%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	54,662	4,493	₦697m	₦695m	9%	13.1 yr
30 50m2	27,909	2,784	₦936m	₦936m	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	20,191	2,990	₦2.71bn	₦2.64bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	11,640	4,125	₦9.71bn	₦9.42bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,555	1,349	₦14.1bn	₦13.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	194	127	₦15.7bn	₦15.6bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	62,959	4,140	₦17bn	₦16.9bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban Centre	32,070	10,182	₦18.6bn	₦18.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unclassified	15,058	291	₦5.36bn	₦5.08bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	6,603	1,253	₦2.82bn	₦2.82bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	461	2	₦7.99m	₦7.99m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,213	3,504	₦575m	₦575m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	23,743	3,109	₦2.83bn	₦2.77bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	11,858	2,863	₦2.77bn	₦2.77bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	8,407	2,772	₦16.1bn	₦15.6bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,906	1,194	₦571m	₦571m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,910	1,196	₦301m	₦301m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	738	338	₦2.08bn	₦2.04bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial	400	287	₦3.8bn	₦3.79bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	241	161	₦11bn	₦11bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	182	109	₦107m	₦107m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	87	59	₦118m	₦118m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	77	41	₦636m	₦485m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	117,148	15,867	₦43.7bn	₦42.8bn
Industrial	3	1	₦157m	₦157m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	115,629	14,983	₦24.1bn	₦23.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,148	631	₦5.9bn	₦5.85bn	43%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	374	254	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,164	3,493	₦572m	₦572m
3.0	18,954	5,060	₦29.4bn	₦28.6bn
2.0	18,280	2,676	₦2.55bn	₦2.52bn
4.0	8,938	2,903	₦5.94bn	₦5.93bn
1.0	6,399	1,464	₦571m	₦571m
5.0	303	177	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn
6.0	113	95	₦3.28bn	₦3.23bn