Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Jibia, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Jibia has 128,079 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.23 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

128,079

Usable roof area

5.55 km²

1.23 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31.7bn/yr

20.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jibia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.68tn

NPV₦237bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy40.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity159 MWp

Capex₦167bn

Year-one energy value₦140bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.47tn

NPV₦1.09tn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jibia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 159 MWp
Capital cost: ₦167bn
Year 1 savings: ₦140bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.09tn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jibia pays back quickly

Of the 125,745 buildings in Jibia with a modelled payback, 37.1% pay back inside five years and 8.8% inside three.

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How much of Jibia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jibia consume 90.2 GWh/yr but want 131 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jibia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jibia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,745 buildings with a modelled result out of 128,079 in Jibia. 63,490 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,081 (9%)

Under 5 years46,645 (37%)

Under 7 years63,670 (51%)

Under 10 years78,178 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%73,971 (58%)

Above 15%63,490 (50%)

Above 20%52,285 (41%)

Above 25%35,603 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

66.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

40.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

267k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jibia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jibia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	36,020	1,210	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	29,861	2,270	₦4.93bn	₦4.4bn	9%	9.4 yr
A	24,752	2,433	₦11.5bn	₦11.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	24,021	1,477	₦3.41bn	₦3.27bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	13,425	3,768	₦9.64bn	₦8.9bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	126,167	9,689	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn	15%	7.1 yr
Commercial Retail	952	811	₦220m	₦220m	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	462	223	₦16.7bn	₦15.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	453	402	₦3.37bn	₦3.04bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	38	26	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	47%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	4	₦1.73m	₦1.73m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦4.43m	₦4.43m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,131	3,749	₦637m	₦637m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	27,921	2,443	₦627m	₦627m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	21,207	2,407	₦1.19bn	₦1.16bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	11,435	1,558	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,638	818	₦7.76bn	₦7.57bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	747	183	₦18.6bn	₦17bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	63,014	3,728	₦13.3bn	₦12.4bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban	25,740	4,353	₦7.26bn	₦6.65bn	17%	5.9 yr
Dense Urban	22,610	1,834	₦9.33bn	₦9.05bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	16,575	1,169	₦1.54bn	₦1.49bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban Centre	140	74	₦230m	₦230m	53%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	76,114	4,723	₦855m	₦855m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Informal	28,419	3,910	₦5.69bn	₦5.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	14,255	513	₦522m	₦522m	17%	5.1 yr
Residential	7,379	543	₦4.27bn	₦4.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	952	811	₦220m	₦220m	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	362	143	₦16.3bn	₦14.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	312	287	₦2.44bn	₦2.12bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	90	72	₦157m	₦157m	93%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	54	41	₦319m	₦319m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	54	51	₦662m	₦644m	47%	2.4 yr
School	29	20	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	24	19	₦7.48m	₦7.48m	57%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	126,294	11,158	₦31.6bn	₦29.8bn
Farmland	1,777	0	₦3.81m	₦3.81m
Industrial	6	0	₦121k	₦121k
Orchard	2	0	₦1.94k	₦1.94k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	127,248	10,593	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	462	224	₦16.7bn	₦15.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
SME High	369	341	₦3.1bn	₦2.77bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,130	3,557	₦599m	₦599m
2.0	25,219	2,597	₦1.92bn	₦1.89bn
1.0	18,676	2,181	₦708m	₦708m
3.0	13,848	1,832	₦7.08bn	₦6.86bn
4.0	5,133	919	₦19.7bn	₦18.4bn
5.0	47	47	₦1.26bn	₦975m
6.0	26	25	₦416m	₦383m