Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Mashi, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Mashi has 128,111 buildings with a viable rooftop and 801 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.65bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

128,111

Usable roof area

3.62 km²

801 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.65bn/yr

3.96 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mashi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.65bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.33bn

Lifetime cash saved₦308bn

NPV₦40.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.78 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity77.9 MWp

Capex₦85.4bn

Year-one energy value₦98.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.69tn

NPV₦816bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Mashi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 77.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦85.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦816bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mashi pays back quickly

Of the 125,711 buildings in Mashi with a modelled payback, 17.8% pay back inside five years and 1.0% inside three.

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How much of Mashi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mashi consume 13.9 GWh/yr but want 22.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mashi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mashi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,711 buildings with a modelled result out of 128,111 in Mashi. 29,944 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,244 (1%)

Under 5 years22,359 (18%)

Under 7 years30,056 (24%)

Under 10 years44,220 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,564 (30%)

Above 15%29,944 (23%)

Above 20%24,322 (19%)

Above 25%18,793 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

12.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.82 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.78 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

367k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mashi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mashi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	48,635	409	₦2.19bn	₦2bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	37,194	107	₦1.04bn	₦970m	7%	15.4 yr
C	29,879	491	₦1.89bn	₦1.86bn	7%	15.1 yr
B	12,403	163	₦526m	₦498m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	127,330	640	₦4.07bn	₦3.76bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	255	134	₦803m	₦803m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	218	154	₦670m	₦669m	69%	1.4 yr
Worship	196	138	₦66.8m	₦66.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	96	95	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Industrial	16	9	₦6.6m	₦6.6m	53%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	77,061	357	₦186m	₦186m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	24,514	189	₦218m	₦190m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	15,159	191	₦502m	₦502m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	8,742	312	₦1.85bn	₦1.73bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,562	112	₦2.21bn	₦2.04bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	73	9	₦680m	₦680m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	61,969	833	₦3.44bn	₦3.27bn	7%	15.1 yr
Unclassified	39,666	79	₦1.44bn	₦1.32bn	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	14,156	207	₦601m	₦574m	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	12,320	51	₦166m	₦166m	7%	14.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	89,316	285	₦200m	₦200m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	17,266	123	₦524m	₦496m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	12,276	190	₦3.16bn	₦2.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	8,472	42	₦188m	₦188m	17%	5.9 yr
Institutional	153	88	₦577m	₦577m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	96	95	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	93	54	₦87.6m	₦87.6m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	93	89	₦422m	₦421m	75%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	73	51	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	69	48	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	67%	1.6 yr
School	57	34	₦57.9m	₦57.9m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	50	21	₦178m	₦178m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	128,111	1,170	₦5.65bn	₦5.33bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	127,745	932	₦4.3bn	₦3.98bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	255	135	₦807m	₦807m	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	111	103	₦535m	₦535m	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	87,924	287	₦194m	₦194m
2.0	15,170	208	₦760m	₦676m
3.0	13,889	370	₦3.75bn	₦3.51bn
1.0	9,327	252	₦228m	₦228m
4.0	1,792	48	₦498m	₦498m
5.0	9	5	₦216m	₦215m