Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Mani, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Mani has 150,704 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.14 GWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

150,704

Usable roof area

5.14 km²

1.14 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.3bn/yr

25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

12.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.32tn

NPV₦204bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback12.9 yr

Unlocked energy18.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity101 MWp

Capex₦110bn

Year-one energy value₦116bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.51tn

NPV₦951bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Mani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 101 MWp
Capital cost: ₦110bn
Year 1 savings: ₦116bn/yr
NPV: ₦951bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mani pays back quickly

Of the 147,311 buildings in Mani with a modelled payback, 27.8% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Mani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mani consume 50.3 GWh/yr but want 68.6 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 147,311 buildings with a modelled result out of 150,704 in Mani. 52,631 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,989 (13%)

Under 5 years41,019 (28%)

Under 7 years52,781 (36%)

Under 10 years73,254 (50%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%66,001 (44%)

Above 15%52,631 (35%)

Above 20%44,311 (29%)

Above 25%35,517 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

45.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

296k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	49,392	4,150	₦5.82bn	₦5.51bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	46,424	9,609	₦12bn	₦11.1bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	36,280	4,721	₦5.84bn	₦5.37bn	7%	13.6 yr
B	18,608	1,029	₦3.66bn	₦3.4bn	15%	6.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	149,926	18,889	₦15.6bn	₦15.6bn	9%	12.9 yr
Anchor	344	247	₦9.93bn	₦8.03bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	225	199	₦1.6bn	₦1.59bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	134	127	₦61.7m	₦61.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	58	39	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	17	8	₦15.9m	₦15.9m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	87,062	8,959	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	28,279	4,070	₦742m	₦742m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	19,217	3,278	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	10,259	1,788	₦2.91bn	₦2.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,351	1,195	₦8.82bn	₦8.79bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	536	219	₦12.4bn	₦10.5bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	103,664	17,535	₦23.3bn	₦21.5bn	9%	9.9 yr
Unclassified	24,902	201	₦977m	₦974m	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	17,500	1,751	₦2.87bn	₦2.78bn	13%	6.9 yr
Rural	4,638	22	₦126m	₦126m	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	102,127	10,287	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	18,344	2,367	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	16,528	4,018	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	19%	4.9 yr
Residential	12,927	2,217	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	197	135	₦9.68bn	₦7.79bn	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	134	127	₦61.7m	₦61.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	120	118	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	90	68	₦144m	₦144m	91%	1.1 yr
School	61	46	₦72.4m	₦72.4m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	57	42	₦207m	₦207m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	45	36	₦126m	₦122m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	21	13	₦6.16m	₦6.16m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	150,704	19,509	₦27.3bn	₦25.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	150,226	19,133	₦16bn	₦16bn	9%	12.9 yr
Enterprise	349	250	₦9.94bn	₦8.04bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	129	126	₦1.31bn	₦1.3bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	96,872	9,689	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn
3.0	18,355	2,952	₦14.5bn	₦13.5bn
2.0	17,353	3,259	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn
1.0	13,615	2,506	₦607m	₦607m
4.0	4,498	1,093	₦8.9bn	₦7.9bn
5.0	10	9	₦448m	₦448m
6.0	1	1	₦153m	₦153m