Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Malumfashi, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Malumfashi has 164,352 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.79 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦72.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

164,352

Usable roof area

8.04 km²

1.79 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦72.4bn/yr

71.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Malumfashi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦72.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦65.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.39tn

NPV₦533bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy51.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity212 MWp

Capex₦223bn

Year-one energy value₦208bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.64tn

NPV₦1.65tn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Malumfashi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 212 MWp
Capital cost: ₦223bn
Year 1 savings: ₦208bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.65tn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Malumfashi pays back quickly

Of the 161,304 buildings in Malumfashi with a modelled payback, 42.6% pay back inside five years and 22.2% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Malumfashi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Malumfashi consume 138 GWh/yr but want 190 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Malumfashi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Malumfashi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 161,304 buildings with a modelled result out of 164,352 in Malumfashi. 88,545 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years35,835 (22%)

Under 5 years68,738 (43%)

Under 7 years88,784 (55%)

Under 10 years115,500 (72%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%108,860 (66%)

Above 15%88,545 (54%)

Above 20%74,453 (45%)

Above 25%58,359 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

118 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

51.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

333k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Malumfashi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Malumfashi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	43,205	11,076	₦23.2bn	₦20.4bn	13%	8.1 yr
C	39,752	8,421	₦18bn	₦16.7bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	38,972	8,033	₦18bn	₦16.3bn	11%	8.4 yr
A	28,635	3,293	₦5.49bn	₦5.39bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	13,788	5,422	₦7.79bn	₦6.97bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	162,956	35,167	₦30.4bn	₦30.1bn	17%	6.1 yr
Anchor	775	548	₦40.3bn	₦34bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	295	224	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	221	215	₦56.4m	₦56.4m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	97	88	₦109m	₦109m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦4.04m	₦4.04m	59%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦788k	₦788k	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦49.3k	₦49.3k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	71,862	13,557	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	9%	13.4 yr
30 50m2	37,652	8,291	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	30,690	7,264	₦2.51bn	₦2.45bn	23%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	15,811	4,306	₦5.73bn	₦5.52bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,871	2,186	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,466	641	₦46.8bn	₦40.4bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	65,222	24,244	₦40.4bn	₦36.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	39,056	2,952	₦13.4bn	₦11.9bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban Centre	35,912	6,250	₦9.91bn	₦9.64bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	16,227	598	₦4.34bn	₦3.78bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	7,935	2,201	₦4.43bn	₦3.78bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	85,995	17,850	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	11%	9.4 yr
Residential Informal	44,746	8,082	₦5.77bn	₦5.77bn	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	20,730	5,749	₦2.38bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	11,485	3,486	₦20.1bn	₦19.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	575	397	₦39.4bn	₦33.4bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	221	215	₦56.4m	₦56.4m	73%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	127	99	₦292m	₦292m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	116	104	₦787m	₦787m	69%	1.6 yr
School	85	64	₦99.8m	₦99.8m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	71	58	₦629m	₦622m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	55	43	₦653m	₦318m	57%	1.9 yr
Unknown	50	22	₦85m	₦85m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	164,352	36,245	₦72.4bn	₦65.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	163,453	35,590	₦31.3bn	₦31bn	17%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	780	551	₦40.3bn	₦34bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	119	104	₦788m	₦788m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	76,219	16,042	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn
2.0	33,235	6,796	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn
3.0	23,040	6,188	₦46.1bn	₦40.7bn
1.0	22,556	4,870	₦1.35bn	₦1.28bn
4.0	9,288	2,337	₦19.6bn	₦18.5bn
5.0	12	11	₦479m	₦479m
6.0	2	1	₦73m	₦73m