Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Dan Musa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Dan Musa has 72,224 buildings with a viable rooftop and 421 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.66bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

72,224

Usable roof area

1.92 km²

421 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.66bn/yr

7.07 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dan Musa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.66bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.37bn

Lifetime cash saved₦450bn

NPV₦68.5bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy8.61 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity54.2 MWp

Capex₦58.9bn

Year-one energy value₦67bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.17tn

NPV₦551bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Dan Musa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 54.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦67bn/yr
NPV: ₦551bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dan Musa pays back quickly

Of the 71,598 buildings in Dan Musa with a modelled payback, 34.8% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Dan Musa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dan Musa consume 14.9 GWh/yr but want 23.6 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dan Musa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dan Musa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,598 buildings with a modelled result out of 72,224 in Dan Musa. 30,214 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,214 (13%)

Under 5 years24,943 (35%)

Under 7 years30,259 (42%)

Under 10 years40,928 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,238 (52%)

Above 15%30,214 (42%)

Above 20%26,533 (37%)

Above 25%22,413 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

16.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.61 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

204k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dan Musa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dan Musa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	27,286	2,846	₦3.17bn	₦3.08bn	13%	7.1 yr
E	22,041	2,902	₦2.43bn	₦2.42bn	11%	9.4 yr
D	21,848	2,805	₦2.16bn	₦1.98bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	1,049	281	₦896m	₦896m	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	71,309	8,362	₦7.14bn	₦6.85bn	11%	9.1 yr
Commercial General	322	145	₦380m	₦380m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	270	222	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	261	46	₦15.5m	₦15.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	60	57	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦3.11m	₦3.11m	77%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	40,006	3,853	₦462m	₦462m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	16,673	2,264	₦736m	₦736m	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	12,108	1,878	₦2.3bn	₦2.21bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,128	716	₦2.62bn	₦2.51bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	301	120	₦2.19bn	₦2.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	3	₦358m	₦358m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	26,310	6,365	₦5.37bn	₦5.25bn	17%	6.1 yr
Unclassified	20,626	124	₦1.34bn	₦1.17bn	7%	15.4 yr
Rural	12,695	110	₦391m	₦391m	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,593	2,235	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	42,304	3,518	₦394m	₦394m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	18,485	3,703	₦2.96bn	₦2.87bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,564	253	₦182m	₦182m	15%	6.4 yr
Residential	3,948	888	₦3.6bn	₦3.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	261	46	₦15.5m	₦15.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	166	143	₦436m	₦436m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	164	9	₦65.6m	₦65.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	107	83	₦136m	₦136m	91%	1.1 yr
School	77	61	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	54	50	₦640m	₦637m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	30	26	₦78.2m	₦78.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	21	20	₦7.54m	₦7.54m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	72,224	8,834	₦8.66bn	₦8.37bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	71,777	8,590	₦7.45bn	₦7.16bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	272	224	₦1.1bn	₦1.09bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	175	20	₦112m	₦112m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	42,307	3,521	₦395m	₦395m
2.0	10,783	2,309	₦2.08bn	₦1.97bn
3.0	8,350	1,991	₦5.01bn	₦4.92bn
1.0	5,389	799	₦780m	₦686m
4.0	5,293	210	₦344m	₦344m
5.0	101	4	₦46.9m	₦46.9m
6.0	1	0	₦3.95m	₦3.95m