Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Zango, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Zango has 78,648 buildings with a viable rooftop and 586 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

78,648

Usable roof area

2.65 km²

586 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.3bn/yr

8.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zango

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦596bn

NPV₦85.3bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.1 yr

Unlocked energy13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.6 MWp

Capex₦66.3bn

Year-one energy value₦63.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3tn

NPV₦513bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Zango's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦513bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zango pays back quickly

Of the 77,130 buildings in Zango with a modelled payback, 25.8% pay back inside five years and 5.1% inside three.

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How much of Zango's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zango consume 27.6 GWh/yr but want 40.6 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zango

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zango actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,130 buildings with a modelled result out of 78,648 in Zango. 29,073 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,939 (5%)

Under 5 years19,864 (26%)

Under 7 years29,173 (38%)

Under 10 years37,736 (49%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,076 (45%)

Above 15%29,073 (37%)

Above 20%22,205 (28%)

Above 25%16,350 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

22.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.89 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

192k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zango.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Zango

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	25,830	936	₦848m	₦848m	9%	9.4 yr
D	22,515	329	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	19,445	192	₦952m	₦952m	7%	14.6 yr
A	8,435	1,103	₦4.38bn	₦4.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	2,423	1,372	₦4bn	₦3.52bn	61%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	78,077	3,559	₦6.01bn	₦6bn	9%	13.1 yr
Anchor	263	159	₦4.97bn	₦4.42bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	142	82	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	105	72	₦290m	₦290m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	58	57	₦7.49m	₦7.49m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦2.18m	₦2.05m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,358	1,277	₦215m	₦215m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	16,422	835	₦229m	₦228m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	11,316	898	₦577m	₦577m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	5,559	576	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,793	284	₦2.98bn	₦2.94bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	200	62	₦5.43bn	₦4.91bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	49,485	1,061	₦2.36bn	₦2.36bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	16,016	1,379	₦5.4bn	₦5.3bn	11%	8.1 yr
Urban Centre	6,106	1,336	₦3.26bn	₦2.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,678	148	₦282m	₦282m	11%	8.1 yr
Rural	1,363	8	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	7%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,477	1,658	₦300m	₦300m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	11,657	575	₦506m	₦505m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	9,305	845	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	6,638	481	₦3.97bn	₦3.97bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	191	100	₦4.79bn	₦4.28bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	78	55	₦58.1m	₦58.1m	85%	1.1 yr
School	67	44	₦75.3m	₦75.3m	79%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	58	57	₦7.49m	₦7.49m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	51	30	₦4.69m	₦4.69m	45%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	46	28	₦6.55m	₦6.55m	43%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	35	25	₦296m	₦265m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	22	15	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	78,648	3,932	₦11.3bn	₦10.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	78,370	3,760	₦6.31bn	₦6.3bn	9%	13.1 yr
Enterprise	263	160	₦4.97bn	₦4.43bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	15	12	₦34.4m	₦34.4m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	48,903	1,565	₦266m	₦266m
2.0	11,904	965	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn
3.0	9,439	792	₦5.31bn	₦4.84bn
1.0	6,741	425	₦196m	₦196m
4.0	1,661	185	₦4.45bn	₦4.37bn