Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Daura, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Daura has 68,343 buildings with a viable rooftop and 685 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

68,343

Usable roof area

3.08 km²

685 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.9bn/yr

21 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Daura

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.38tn

NPV₦207bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy22.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.6 MWp

Capex₦82.8bn

Year-one energy value₦70.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.3tn

NPV₦554bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Daura's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦554bn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Daura pays back quickly

Of the 68,315 buildings in Daura with a modelled payback, 66.7% pay back inside five years and 21.9% inside three.

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How much of Daura's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Daura consume 53.9 GWh/yr but want 76.6 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Daura

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Daura actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 68,315 buildings with a modelled result out of 68,343 in Daura. 54,152 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,952 (22%)

Under 5 years45,599 (67%)

Under 7 years54,243 (79%)

Under 10 years58,006 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%57,312 (84%)

Above 15%54,152 (79%)

Above 20%48,180 (70%)

Above 25%40,525 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

49.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Daura.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Daura

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	46,350	12,500	₦16.6bn	₦16.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
C	7,838	1,294	₦2.7bn	₦2.38bn	15%	6.9 yr
B	5,752	1,281	₦4.59bn	₦4.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	4,828	524	₦1.55bn	₦1.17bn	7%	15.9 yr
D	3,575	230	₦1.45bn	₦1.23bn	7%	15.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	65,479	14,160	₦19.7bn	₦18.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,448	779	₦227m	₦227m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	1,137	731	₦3.01bn	₦2.97bn	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	223	122	₦3.91bn	₦3.82bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	32	27	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	9	5	₦6.15m	₦6.15m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	7	3	₦11m	₦11m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	5	1	₦8.51m	₦8.51m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦1.91m	₦1.91m	39%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦106k	₦106k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,406	4,604	₦804m	₦578m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	16,387	3,760	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	14,969	4,011	₦3.49bn	₦3.35bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	8,065	2,668	₦8.44bn	₦7.69bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,432	729	₦8.09bn	₦7.85bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	84	57	₦4.97bn	₦4.88bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	49,008	13,779	₦18.6bn	₦18.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	10,361	840	₦3.45bn	₦2.94bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,462	1,072	₦1.98bn	₦1.59bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	2,169	138	₦2.8bn	₦2.36bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	343	0	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	9%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	25,254	4,285	₦431m	₦431m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	24,387	4,186	₦4.05bn	₦3.89bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	9,140	3,782	₦3.16bn	₦2.8bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential	4,457	1,785	₦11.9bn	₦11.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,235	120	₦97.1m	₦97.1m	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,448	779	₦227m	₦227m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	586	287	₦2.27bn	₦2.23bn	39%	2.6 yr
Market	316	311	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	142	87	₦3.61bn	₦3.54bn	43%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	77	40	₦199m	₦199m	59%	1.9 yr
Unknown	70	27	₦117m	₦117m	35%	3.1 yr
School	57	27	₦98m	₦98m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,343	15,829	₦26.9bn	₦25.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	67,477	15,371	₦20.6bn	₦19.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	641	333	₦2.34bn	₦2.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	225	125	₦3.91bn	₦3.82bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,037	3,647	₦369m	₦369m
3.0	16,549	4,724	₦14.3bn	₦13.6bn
2.0	11,919	2,809	₦3.61bn	₦3.22bn
4.0	11,847	2,822	₦6.19bn	₦5.88bn
1.0	4,799	1,683	₦671m	₦659m
5.0	179	134	₦1.01bn	₦1bn
6.0	13	10	₦721m	₦698m