Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Dandume, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Dandume has 82,393 buildings with a viable rooftop and 786 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

82,393

Usable roof area

3.54 km²

786 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.2bn/yr

14.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dandume

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15bn

Lifetime cash saved₦800bn

NPV₦126bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy14.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.5 MWp

Capex₦73.5bn

Year-one energy value₦77.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.67tn

NPV₦633bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dandume's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦73.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦633bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dandume pays back quickly

Of the 81,733 buildings in Dandume with a modelled payback, 45.5% pay back inside five years and 10.2% inside three.

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How much of Dandume's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dandume consume 25.2 GWh/yr but want 39.6 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dandume

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dandume actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,733 buildings with a modelled result out of 82,393 in Dandume. 53,025 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,376 (10%)

Under 5 years37,183 (45%)

Under 7 years53,150 (65%)

Under 10 years63,691 (78%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,914 (74%)

Above 15%53,025 (64%)

Above 20%42,009 (51%)

Above 25%29,362 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

28.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.26 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

209k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dandume.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dandume

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	28,378	1,261	₦952m	₦952m	21%	5.1 yr
D	16,976	3,009	₦6.91bn	₦6.75bn	11%	8.6 yr
C	15,594	1,445	₦3.09bn	₦3.07bn	21%	5.4 yr
E	14,559	2,515	₦4.04bn	₦3.99bn	11%	8.6 yr
A	6,886	74	₦238m	₦238m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	81,850	7,926	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	21%	5.4 yr
Anchor	334	234	₦3.88bn	₦3.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	173	118	₦1.03bn	₦881m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	35	26	₦34.1m	₦34.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦216k	₦216k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	32,790	3,017	₦379m	₦379m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	20,346	2,048	₦2.05bn	₦2.04bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	18,902	1,838	₦564m	₦564m	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	8,696	1,036	₦3.1bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,556	319	₦4.67bn	₦4.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	103	46	₦4.48bn	₦4.32bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	29,435	6,379	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban Centre	28,353	463	₦2.58bn	₦2.43bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,414	1,246	₦606m	₦606m	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	9,504	159	₦1.47bn	₦1.42bn	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	4,687	57	₦467m	₦467m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	38,580	3,447	₦478m	₦478m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	19,605	207	₦601m	₦601m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Small	16,181	2,847	₦2.26bn	₦2.25bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,839	1,425	₦6.92bn	₦6.86bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,640	0	₦22.9m	₦22.9m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	202	144	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	107	67	₦108m	₦108m	81%	1.4 yr
School	85	51	₦179m	₦179m	73%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	62	51	₦403m	₦403m	59%	1.6 yr
Clinic	53	40	₦201m	₦201m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	12	9	₦4.87m	₦4.87m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	11	8	₦2.04m	₦2.04m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	82,393	8,304	₦15.2bn	₦15bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,051	8,063	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	21%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	335	234	₦3.88bn	₦3.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	7	7	₦760m	₦607m	85%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,047	3,421	₦464m	₦464m
2.0	16,152	2,236	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn
3.0	16,119	1,952	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn
4.0	8,005	123	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn
1.0	5,068	570	₦405m	₦397m
5.0	2	2	₦476m	₦323m