Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kaita, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kaita has 110,773 buildings with a viable rooftop and 810 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

110,773

Usable roof area

3.65 km²

810 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9bn/yr

5.91 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaita

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦484bn

NPV₦66.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy11.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity71.8 MWp

Capex₦78.5bn

Year-one energy value₦82.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.92tn

NPV₦676bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaita's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 71.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦78.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦676bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaita pays back quickly

Of the 109,688 buildings in Kaita with a modelled payback, 27.4% pay back inside five years and 4.2% inside three.

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How much of Kaita's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaita consume 24.1 GWh/yr but want 36 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaita

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaita actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 109,688 buildings with a modelled result out of 110,773 in Kaita. 40,260 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,626 (4%)

Under 5 years30,002 (27%)

Under 7 years40,377 (37%)

Under 10 years51,383 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%47,631 (43%)

Above 15%40,260 (36%)

Above 20%33,096 (30%)

Above 25%23,756 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

19.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.79 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaita.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaita

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	36,316	260	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	27,996	1,148	₦2.45bn	₦2.19bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	25,893	114	₦702m	₦682m	7%	15.1 yr
B	16,278	3,107	₦3.61bn	₦3.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	4,290	5	₦728m	₦720m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	110,280	4,348	₦5.16bn	₦5.15bn	9%	13.6 yr
Anchor	215	134	₦3.56bn	₦3.16bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	100	70	₦35.8m	₦35.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	99	65	₦235m	₦235m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	62	10	₦1.77m	₦1.77m	27%	3.9 yr
Industrial	17	7	₦5.73m	₦5.73m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,699	1,720	₦283m	₦283m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	22,801	1,020	₦265m	₦265m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	14,458	888	₦504m	₦504m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	8,341	651	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,254	296	₦2.44bn	₦2.4bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	220	59	₦3.9bn	₦3.54bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	70,387	1,579	₦4.48bn	₦4.19bn	7%	13.9 yr
Unclassified	21,743	74	₦569m	₦569m	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	14,976	2,970	₦3.38bn	₦3.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,667	11	₦572m	₦552m	7%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,879	2,209	₦391m	₦391m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	13,930	324	₦413m	₦413m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	12,105	1,554	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	8,366	261	₦2.55bn	₦2.54bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	159	104	₦3.43bn	₦3.06bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	81	59	₦119m	₦119m	89%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	62	10	₦1.77m	₦1.77m	27%	3.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	55	30	₦234m	₦202m	43%	2.6 yr
Worship Center	47	32	₦7.34m	₦7.34m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	19	14	₦2.04m	₦2.04m	69%	1.6 yr
School	18	14	₦8.99m	₦8.99m	85%	1.1 yr
Clinic	17	10	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	110,770	4,634	₦9bn	₦8.6bn
Farmland	3	0	₦4.57k	₦4.57k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	110,539	4,493	₦5.42bn	₦5.41bn	9%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	217	136	₦3.56bn	₦3.17bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	17	5	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	70,992	1,907	₦308m	₦308m
2.0	16,679	1,112	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
1.0	12,445	491	₦324m	₦324m
3.0	8,589	822	₦3.57bn	₦3.49bn
4.0	2,068	302	₦3.56bn	₦3.23bn