Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kusada, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kusada has 64,320 buildings with a viable rooftop and 387 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.26bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

64,320

Usable roof area

1.75 km²

387 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.26bn/yr

6.86 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kusada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.26bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.06bn

Lifetime cash saved₦430bn

NPV₦65.3bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.92 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity53.8 MWp

Capex₦58.3bn

Year-one energy value₦67.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.21tn

NPV₦560bn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kusada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 53.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦67.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦560bn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kusada pays back quickly

Of the 62,203 buildings in Kusada with a modelled payback, 23.1% pay back inside five years and 5.6% inside three.

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How much of Kusada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kusada consume 14.1 GWh/yr but want 21.1 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kusada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kusada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 62,203 buildings with a modelled result out of 64,320 in Kusada. 17,670 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,465 (6%)

Under 5 years14,362 (23%)

Under 7 years17,751 (29%)

Under 10 years28,328 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,294 (38%)

Above 15%17,670 (27%)

Above 20%15,042 (23%)

Above 25%13,087 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

15.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.95 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.92 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

204k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kusada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kusada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,686	1,147	₦2.67bn	₦2.66bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	19,979	736	₦2.27bn	₦2.08bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	15,731	1,108	₦3.15bn	₦3.15bn	9%	12.9 yr
B	6,924	14	₦163m	₦163m	11%	7.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,128	2,648	₦6.71bn	₦6.7bn	9%	13.4 yr
Commercial Retail	504	40	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	275	58	₦217m	₦217m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	223	158	₦1.28bn	₦1.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	172	89	₦25.5m	₦25.5m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	18	12	₦7.94m	₦7.94m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,930	1,379	₦265m	₦265m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	13,716	550	₦248m	₦246m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	7,752	493	₦781m	₦781m	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,641	412	₦2.9bn	₦2.89bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,220	157	₦2.73bn	₦2.73bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	61	14	₦1.33bn	₦1.14bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	41,608	2,307	₦5.79bn	₦5.77bn	9%	13.1 yr
Unclassified	15,956	397	₦1.96bn	₦1.77bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,649	90	₦281m	₦281m	11%	8.4 yr
Rural	1,107	211	₦231m	₦231m	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	41,634	1,578	₦273m	₦273m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	10,942	576	₦952m	₦950m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,398	0	₦99.1m	₦99.1m	13%	7.4 yr
Residential	5,154	494	₦5.39bn	₦5.38bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	504	40	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	35%	2.9 yr
Institutional	133	80	₦1.11bn	₦922m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	106	3	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	93	7	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	81	56	₦88.8m	₦88.8m	91%	1.1 yr
School	66	49	₦90.3m	₦90.3m	93%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	63	33	₦5.53m	₦5.53m	43%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	54	28	₦5.09m	₦5.09m	41%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,320	3,005	₦8.26bn	₦8.06bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,912	2,845	₦6.91bn	₦6.89bn	9%	13.4 yr
Enterprise	209	150	₦1.28bn	₦1.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	199	10	₦76.7m	₦76.7m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,957	1,585	₦271m	₦271m
2.0	8,551	476	₦983m	₦983m
3.0	7,287	630	₦6.56bn	₦6.35bn
1.0	6,629	310	₦301m	₦299m
4.0	886	4	₦127m	₦127m
5.0	8	0	₦11.4m	₦11.4m
6.0	2	0	₦13.5m	₦13.5m