Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Mai'Adua, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Mai'Adua has 75,503 buildings with a viable rooftop and 627 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

75,503

Usable roof area

2.83 km²

627 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26bn/yr

22.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mai'Adua

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.06tn

NPV₦163bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy12.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity84.6 MWp

Capex₦91.3bn

Year-one energy value₦98.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.66tn

NPV₦808bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Mai'Adua's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 84.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦91.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦808bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mai'Adua pays back quickly

Of the 74,532 buildings in Mai'Adua with a modelled payback, 35.2% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Mai'Adua's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mai'Adua consume 48.9 GWh/yr but want 61.2 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mai'Adua

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mai'Adua actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,532 buildings with a modelled result out of 75,503 in Mai'Adua. 31,161 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,860 (8%)

Under 5 years26,204 (35%)

Under 7 years31,198 (42%)

Under 10 years38,532 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,787 (47%)

Above 15%31,161 (41%)

Above 20%27,649 (37%)

Above 25%23,544 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

36.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.67 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

314k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mai'Adua.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Mai'Adua

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	24,717	597	₦4.19bn	₦3.58bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	18,156	598	₦3.74bn	₦2.6bn	7%	14.9 yr
C	16,690	394	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	8,110	1,419	₦4.11bn	₦4.11bn	29%	3.9 yr
A	7,830	2,829	₦12.4bn	₦8.85bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	74,975	5,398	₦17bn	₦15.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	226	181	₦7.86bn	₦4.41bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	143	122	₦998m	₦896m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	84	84	₦13.2m	₦13.2m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	73	50	₦86.5m	₦86.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦1.17m	₦1.17m	79%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	39,642	1,171	₦268m	₦268m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	15,719	1,281	₦458m	₦449m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	10,678	1,473	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,780	1,234	₦4.76bn	₦4.47bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,460	580	₦8.43bn	₦7.74bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	224	98	₦10.8bn	₦6.44bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	44,375	570	₦5.59bn	₦4.28bn	7%	15.1 yr
Unclassified	24,916	4,340	₦18.9bn	₦14.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban Centre	3,435	850	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	29%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,697	77	₦462m	₦459m	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	80	0	₦1.38m	₦1.38m	3%	18.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	48,865	1,976	₦466m	₦466m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	12,944	732	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	6,829	1,848	₦4.18bn	₦4.18bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,337	842	₦11.3bn	₦9.54bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	149	129	₦7.56bn	₦4.47bn	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	84	84	₦13.2m	₦13.2m	53%	1.9 yr
School	55	46	₦55.3m	₦55.3m	87%	1.1 yr
Educational Facility	51	35	₦60.9m	₦60.9m	89%	1.1 yr
Clinic	49	41	₦702m	₦323m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	32	23	₦7.58m	₦7.58m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	21	₦49.1m	₦49.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	28	27	₦94.3m	₦94.3m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	75,503	5,837	₦26bn	₦20.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	75,242	5,624	₦18bn	₦16.2bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	228	183	₦7.86bn	₦4.41bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	33	30	₦97.4m	₦97.4m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	46,539	1,770	₦404m	₦404m
2.0	10,106	1,304	₦2.27bn	₦2.11bn
3.0	9,830	1,491	₦11.6bn	₦10bn
1.0	6,550	590	₦415m	₦415m
4.0	2,474	678	₦10.9bn	₦7.43bn
5.0	4	4	₦362m	₦280m