Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Baure, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Baure has 96,689 buildings with a viable rooftop and 442 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.86bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,689

Usable roof area

2.02 km²

442 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.86bn/yr

5.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Baure

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.86bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.57bn

Lifetime cash saved₦359bn

NPV₦51.5bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.76 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity56 MWp

Capex₦61.3bn

Year-one energy value₦69bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.26tn

NPV₦567bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Baure's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 56 MWp
Capital cost: ₦61.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69bn/yr
NPV: ₦567bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Baure pays back quickly

Of the 95,984 buildings in Baure with a modelled payback, 20.7% pay back inside five years and 4.1% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Baure's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Baure consume 14.5 GWh/yr but want 22.3 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Baure

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Baure actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 95,984 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,689 in Baure. 25,378 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,913 (4%)

Under 5 years19,849 (21%)

Under 7 years25,449 (27%)

Under 10 years34,920 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,292 (32%)

Above 15%25,378 (26%)

Above 20%21,138 (22%)

Above 25%17,898 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

13.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.74 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.76 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

286k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Baure.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Baure

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,516	1,015	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	27,597	1,139	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	7%	15.9 yr
C	25,099	1,073	₦3.61bn	₦3.35bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	8,477	346	₦889m	₦855m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,336	2,745	₦4.71bn	₦4.7bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial Retail	662	460	₦96.4m	₦96.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	368	202	₦397m	₦397m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	284	144	₦1.65bn	₦1.37bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	37	20	₦7.62m	₦7.62m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,830	1,703	₦337m	₦334m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	22,506	887	₦625m	₦625m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	10,119	596	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,960	316	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	261	64	₦1.23bn	₦1.22bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	13	7	₦1.42bn	₦1.14bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	64,765	3,034	₦4.7bn	₦4.45bn	7%	15.1 yr
Unclassified	15,823	44	₦327m	₦324m	5%	17.4 yr
Dense Urban	12,043	492	₦1.78bn	₦1.75bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	4,058	3	₦48.3m	₦48.3m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	71,407	1,571	₦291m	₦291m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	13,406	601	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	7,127	434	₦2.37bn	₦2.36bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,892	0	₦15.8m	₦12.9m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,503	139	₦159m	₦159m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	662	460	₦96.4m	₦96.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	169	84	₦386m	₦386m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	118	35	₦140m	₦140m	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	100	53	₦91.8m	₦91.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial	90	86	₦108m	₦108m	55%	1.9 yr
School	70	36	₦36.2m	₦36.2m	53%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	32	₦946m	₦695m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,686	3,573	₦6.86bn	₦6.57bn
Farmland	3	0	₦93.3k	₦93.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	96,196	3,307	₦4.96bn	₦4.96bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	285	145	₦1.65bn	₦1.37bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	208	121	₦248m	₦248m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	71,421	1,583	₦293m	₦293m
2.0	11,792	780	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn
1.0	7,209	703	₦673m	₦673m
3.0	4,444	482	₦3.55bn	₦3.29bn
4.0	1,814	24	₦455m	₦422m
5.0	9	1	₦58.8m	₦58.8m