Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Ingawa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Ingawa has 95,595 buildings with a viable rooftop and 655 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.05bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

95,595

Usable roof area

2.96 km²

655 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.05bn/yr

6.91 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ingawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.05bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.45bn

Lifetime cash saved₦467bn

NPV₦67.8bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity71.7 MWp

Capex₦78bn

Year-one energy value₦88bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.19tn

NPV₦728bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ingawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 71.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦78bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88bn/yr
NPV: ₦728bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ingawa pays back quickly

Of the 94,305 buildings in Ingawa with a modelled payback, 29.4% pay back inside five years and 6.9% inside three.

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How much of Ingawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ingawa consume 19.4 GWh/yr but want 29.7 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ingawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ingawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,305 buildings with a modelled result out of 95,595 in Ingawa. 38,270 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,480 (7%)

Under 5 years27,690 (29%)

Under 7 years38,391 (41%)

Under 10 years49,853 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,006 (48%)

Above 15%38,270 (40%)

Above 20%30,905 (32%)

Above 25%22,510 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

17.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.52 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

301k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ingawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ingawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,438	953	₦1.92bn	₦1.86bn	9%	13.1 yr
D	28,017	1,611	₦2bn	₦1.96bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	25,976	3,208	₦4.19bn	₦3.7bn	15%	6.6 yr
B	13,164	701	₦943m	₦923m	13%	6.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,153	6,159	₦6.66bn	₦6.42bn	9%	9.6 yr
Anchor	208	131	₦1.47bn	₦1.24bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	143	104	₦895m	₦772m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	86	79	₦15.9m	₦15.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	4	0	₦90.5k	₦90.5k	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦104k	₦104k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,819	2,516	₦358m	₦358m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	20,620	1,519	₦363m	₦363m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	13,022	1,216	₦771m	₦746m	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	6,873	861	₦3.05bn	₦2.83bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,155	318	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	106	43	₦1.9bn	₦1.55bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	57,650	5,021	₦6.83bn	₦6.46bn	9%	9.4 yr
Unclassified	17,903	55	₦678m	₦513m	7%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	15,912	1,381	₦1.45bn	₦1.39bn	17%	5.6 yr
Rural	4,130	16	₦90.6m	₦90.6m	9%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	65,157	3,404	₦499m	₦499m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	15,209	1,707	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	21%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	9,498	630	₦785m	₦731m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,289	418	₦3.94bn	₦3.76bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	100	61	₦1.08bn	₦853m	49%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	93	70	₦143m	₦143m	89%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	86	79	₦15.9m	₦15.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	60	28	₦251m	₦251m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	50	49	₦793m	₦670m	63%	1.6 yr
School	27	18	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	89%	1.1 yr
Clinic	15	7	₦58.2m	₦58.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	5	0	₦327k	₦327k	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	95,595	6,473	₦9.05bn	₦8.45bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,336	6,293	₦6.78bn	₦6.54bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	209	131	₦1.47bn	₦1.24bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	50	49	₦793m	₦670m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	59,860	2,691	₦406m	₦406m
2.0	14,945	1,394	₦1.8bn	₦1.75bn
1.0	12,047	1,109	₦487m	₦487m
3.0	6,689	926	₦4.06bn	₦3.87bn
4.0	2,052	351	₦2.04bn	₦1.81bn
5.0	2	2	₦251m	₦128m