Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Musawa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Musawa has 108,393 buildings with a viable rooftop and 971 MWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

108,393

Usable roof area

4.37 km²

971 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.5bn/yr

62 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Musawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦51.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.56tn

NPV₦412bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy30.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity133 MWp

Capex₦141bn

Year-one energy value₦133bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.16tn

NPV₦1.06tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Musawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 133 MWp
Capital cost: ₦141bn
Year 1 savings: ₦133bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.06tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Musawa pays back quickly

Of the 107,804 buildings in Musawa with a modelled payback, 41.7% pay back inside five years and 26.3% inside three.

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How much of Musawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Musawa consume 109 GWh/yr but want 140 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Musawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Musawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 107,804 buildings with a modelled result out of 108,393 in Musawa. 51,168 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years28,374 (26%)

Under 5 years44,912 (42%)

Under 7 years51,220 (48%)

Under 10 years64,210 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,526 (55%)

Above 15%51,168 (47%)

Above 20%46,769 (43%)

Above 25%41,257 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

85.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

210k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Musawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Musawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	34,968	8,938	₦20.9bn	₦18.4bn	11%	8.9 yr
D	31,210	7,246	₦14.2bn	₦12.8bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	27,912	6,904	₦14.5bn	₦12.1bn	9%	9.6 yr
B	14,303	6,023	₦8.93bn	₦8.46bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	107,662	28,508	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn	11%	8.4 yr
Anchor	539	442	₦37bn	₦30.3bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	123	100	₦862m	₦860m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	54	53	₦82.7m	₦82.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	15	8	₦3.75m	₦3.75m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	59,561	13,484	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	7%	14.4 yr
30 50m2	23,560	6,351	₦1.02bn	₦985m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	13,794	4,786	₦1.6bn	₦1.57bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,901	2,628	₦3.68bn	₦3.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,797	1,399	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	780	463	₦40.7bn	₦34bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	64,555	20,055	₦39.9bn	₦34.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
Unclassified	20,498	434	₦3.41bn	₦3.4bn	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	20,070	8,549	₦14.5bn	₦13.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Rural	3,270	73	₦586m	₦553m	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,731	17,046	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Small	12,870	3,849	₦1.59bn	₦1.53bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	11,190	5,175	₦3.36bn	₦3.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	7,871	2,438	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	383	310	₦36.4bn	₦29.8bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	92	79	₦244m	₦244m	93%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	74	60	₦375m	₦372m	61%	1.6 yr
School	63	54	₦115m	₦115m	91%	1.1 yr
Clinic	48	37	₦767m	₦633m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	22	22	₦8.99m	₦8.99m	69%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	16	16	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	69%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	15	8	₦3.75m	₦3.75m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	108,393	29,111	₦58.5bn	₦51.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	107,843	28,658	₦21.4bn	₦21.3bn	11%	8.4 yr
Enterprise	539	442	₦37bn	₦30.3bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	11	11	₦71.7m	₦71.7m	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,384	16,364	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn
3.0	11,680	4,258	₦33.8bn	₦29.9bn
2.0	11,264	4,482	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn
1.0	9,391	2,359	₦744m	₦679m
4.0	3,673	1,647	₦20.2bn	₦17.4bn
5.0	1	1	₦21.9m	₦21.9m