Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kankia, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kankia has 114,713 buildings with a viable rooftop and 993 MWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦51.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,713

Usable roof area

4.46 km²

993 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦51.8bn/yr

53.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kankia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦51.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.27tn

NPV₦362bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy23.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity128 MWp

Capex₦136bn

Year-one energy value₦135bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.31tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kankia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 128 MWp
Capital cost: ₦136bn
Year 1 savings: ₦135bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kankia pays back quickly

Of the 113,303 buildings in Kankia with a modelled payback, 38.1% pay back inside five years and 19.0% inside three.

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How much of Kankia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kankia consume 95 GWh/yr but want 119 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kankia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kankia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 113,303 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,713 in Kankia. 52,506 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,584 (19%)

Under 5 years43,130 (38%)

Under 7 years52,620 (46%)

Under 10 years67,994 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%62,958 (55%)

Above 15%52,506 (46%)

Above 20%45,739 (40%)

Above 25%38,333 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

74.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

256k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kankia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kankia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	33,587	5,300	₦12.2bn	₦10.5bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	29,241	7,358	₦12.6bn	₦11.6bn	13%	8.1 yr
E	24,937	3,522	₦13bn	₦11.1bn	9%	13.4 yr
B	19,401	5,372	₦10.9bn	₦10bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	7,547	939	₦3.09bn	₦2.56bn	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	113,593	21,543	₦21.4bn	₦21.2bn	11%	8.4 yr
Anchor	460	366	₦28.5bn	₦22.8bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	259	255	₦69.2m	₦69.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	233	194	₦1.7bn	₦1.64bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	139	111	₦116m	₦116m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	29	22	₦25.7m	₦25.6m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,908	10,127	₦1.17bn	₦1.16bn	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	24,027	4,844	₦921m	₦921m	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	14,796	3,674	₦1.62bn	₦1.61bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	8,070	2,243	₦4.93bn	₦4.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,250	1,297	₦11.2bn	₦11.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	662	306	₦32bn	₦26.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	44,822	2,685	₦10.5bn	₦9.13bn	7%	14.4 yr
Urban	35,237	11,164	₦16.5bn	₦15.3bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	20,487	6,374	₦11.5bn	₦10.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	14,167	2,268	₦13.3bn	₦11.1bn	13%	7.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	73,015	10,441	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Informal	16,952	4,589	₦3.18bn	₦3.18bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	14,850	4,222	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	8,776	2,291	₦15bn	₦14.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	336	261	₦27.9bn	₦22.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	259	255	₦69.2m	₦69.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	97	84	₦226m	₦226m	93%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	80	72	₦686m	₦666m	63%	1.6 yr
School	77	66	₦133m	₦133m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	62	46	₦750m	₦664m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	51	39	₦19.8m	₦19.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	45	38	₦13.8m	₦13.8m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	114,713	22,491	₦51.8bn	₦45.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	114,157	22,037	₦22.2bn	₦22bn	11%	8.4 yr
Enterprise	453	360	₦28.5bn	₦22.8bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	103	94	₦1.08bn	₦1.02bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	68,562	9,860	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn
2.0	15,458	4,447	₦1.99bn	₦1.98bn
3.0	14,453	4,233	₦30.1bn	₦26.6bn
1.0	12,314	2,861	₦725m	₦723m
4.0	3,907	1,074	₦16.9bn	₦14.5bn
5.0	16	15	₦563m	₦522m
6.0	3	1	₦116m	₦96.1m