Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Dutsi, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Dutsi has 59,492 buildings with a viable rooftop and 364 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.59bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,492

Usable roof area

1.64 km²

364 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.59bn/yr

5.54 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dutsi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.59bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦397bn

NPV₦58.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.83 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity60.7 MWp

Capex₦65.6bn

Year-one energy value₦75.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.56tn

NPV₦621bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dutsi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 60.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦65.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦621bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dutsi pays back quickly

Of the 59,311 buildings in Dutsi with a modelled payback, 25.1% pay back inside five years and 4.9% inside three.

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How much of Dutsi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dutsi consume 16.8 GWh/yr but want 25.7 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dutsi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dutsi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 59,311 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,492 in Dutsi. 18,871 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,918 (5%)

Under 5 years14,899 (25%)

Under 7 years18,918 (32%)

Under 10 years23,390 (39%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,718 (37%)

Above 15%18,871 (32%)

Above 20%16,117 (27%)

Above 25%12,808 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

15.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.94 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.83 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

298k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dutsi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dutsi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	18,915	2,778	₦3.56bn	₦3.46bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	17,138	353	₦2.61bn	₦2.44bn	7%	15.9 yr
E	16,845	165	₦955m	₦955m	5%	16.6 yr
B	6,594	93	₦457m	₦444m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,238	3,219	₦5.49bn	₦5.36bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	155	111	₦1.97bn	₦1.81bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	73	46	₦119m	₦119m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	12	2	₦2.18m	₦2.18m	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	8	5	₦3.14m	₦3.14m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6	6	₦717k	₦717k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,877	1,346	₦150m	₦150m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	9,771	693	₦156m	₦156m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	5,742	643	₦545m	₦545m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,767	482	₦2.3bn	₦2.29bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,262	181	₦2.6bn	₦2.48bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	73	44	₦1.84bn	₦1.68bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	44,109	868	₦3.97bn	₦3.84bn	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	10,930	2,498	₦3.43bn	₦3.27bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	4,297	23	₦187m	₦187m	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	156	0	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,890	1,045	₦177m	₦177m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,667	1,650	₦798m	₦798m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	4,847	305	₦586m	₦586m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	3,834	219	₦3.93bn	₦3.8bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	77	54	₦1.07bn	₦1.01bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	70	54	₦84.6m	₦84.6m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	33	₦919m	₦821m	57%	1.9 yr
School	15	11	₦8.18m	₦8.18m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	2	₦2m	₦2m	39%	2.6 yr
Clinic	8	3	₦3.11m	₦3.11m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	7	2	₦1.78m	₦1.78m	33%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	6	6	₦717k	₦717k	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	59,492	3,389	₦7.59bn	₦7.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	59,333	3,277	₦5.62bn	₦5.49bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	156	111	₦1.97bn	₦1.81bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	3	1	₦2.4m	₦2.4m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,277	865	₦166m	₦166m
2.0	8,089	1,234	₦1.63bn	₦1.61bn
1.0	4,489	403	₦307m	₦307m
3.0	3,017	627	₦4.17bn	₦3.96bn
4.0	620	260	₦1.31bn	₦1.25bn