Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Sabuwa, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Sabuwa has 51,427 buildings with a viable rooftop and 435 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,427

Usable roof area

1.96 km²

435 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.7bn/yr

14.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sabuwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦896bn

NPV₦147bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.4 MWp

Capex₦63.2bn

Year-one energy value₦71.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.41tn

NPV₦593bn

Median IRR115%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sabuwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦71.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦593bn
Median IRR: 115%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sabuwa pays back quickly

Of the 51,073 buildings in Sabuwa with a modelled payback, 52.1% pay back inside five years and 22.8% inside three.

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How much of Sabuwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sabuwa consume 23 GWh/yr but want 36.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sabuwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sabuwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,073 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,427 in Sabuwa. 31,189 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,643 (23%)

Under 5 years26,620 (52%)

Under 7 years31,237 (61%)

Under 10 years38,089 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%36,168 (70%)

Above 15%31,189 (61%)

Above 20%27,931 (54%)

Above 25%23,834 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

31.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

199k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sabuwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sabuwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	17,132	5,165	₦6.73bn	₦6.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,253	4,150	₦5.49bn	₦5.43bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	12,622	2,305	₦5.2bn	₦4.88bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	6,420	1	₦239m	₦239m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,964	11,220	₦16.6bn	₦16.2bn	23%	4.9 yr
Anchor	251	213	₦695m	₦695m	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	132	111	₦288m	₦288m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	78	76	₦70.8m	₦70.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦95.1k	₦95.1k	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦547k	₦547k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	21,699	4,110	₦518m	₦518m	9%	13.6 yr
50 100m2	12,327	3,091	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	11,902	2,721	₦1.08bn	₦1.05bn	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	4,792	1,419	₦6.83bn	₦6.55bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	701	279	₦5.02bn	₦4.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	1	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	28,678	10,123	₦13.9bn	₦13.7bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban Centre	9,252	344	₦1.44bn	₦1.41bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	4,653	47	₦980m	₦746m	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,441	902	₦723m	₦723m	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	4,403	205	₦638m	₦638m	11%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,102	4,993	₦560m	₦560m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	13,598	4,516	₦4.97bn	₦4.93bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,789	0	₦200m	₦200m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	4,475	1,711	₦10.9bn	₦10.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	152	132	₦332m	₦332m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	90	74	₦134m	₦134m	95%	1.1 yr
School	62	50	₦69.9m	₦69.9m	95%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	42	₦383m	₦383m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	43	39	₦99m	₦98.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	27	26	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	73%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	25	25	₦8.53m	₦8.53m	73%	1.4 yr
Compound University	8	8	₦8.54m	₦8.54m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,427	11,621	₦17.7bn	₦17.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,171	11,405	₦17bn	₦16.5bn	23%	4.9 yr
Enterprise	251	212	₦695m	₦695m	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	5	4	₦5.01m	₦5.01m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,093	4,997	₦561m	₦561m
3.0	10,810	3,021	₦12.7bn	₦12.3bn
2.0	10,652	2,912	₦3.63bn	₦3.53bn
1.0	2,409	689	₦650m	₦650m
4.0	1,463	2	₦160m	₦160m