Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Kurfi, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Kurfi has 83,982 buildings with a viable rooftop and 665 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,982

Usable roof area

3 km²

665 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30.2bn/yr

29.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kurfi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.3tn

NPV₦205bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy16.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity91.2 MWp

Capex₦97.5bn

Year-one energy value₦98.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.58tn

NPV₦789bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kurfi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 91.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦97.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦789bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kurfi pays back quickly

Of the 83,150 buildings in Kurfi with a modelled payback, 34.9% pay back inside five years and 17.2% inside three.

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How much of Kurfi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kurfi consume 60.4 GWh/yr but want 76.7 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kurfi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kurfi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,150 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,982 in Kurfi. 35,119 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,301 (17%)

Under 5 years29,056 (35%)

Under 7 years35,200 (42%)

Under 10 years45,934 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,089 (50%)

Above 15%35,119 (42%)

Above 20%30,797 (37%)

Above 25%25,581 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

44.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kurfi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kurfi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	28,126	3,726	₦5.71bn	₦5.12bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	22,415	2,814	₦3.92bn	₦3.79bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	19,288	3,570	₦9.62bn	₦8.2bn	9%	9.4 yr
B	14,153	4,195	₦10.9bn	₦8.75bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,537	13,977	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	351	252	₦17.9bn	₦13.7bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	82	66	₦418m	₦413m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	11	10	₦1.62m	₦1.62m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	1	0	₦431k	₦431k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	46,024	6,225	₦754m	₦752m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	17,978	3,295	₦618m	₦618m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	11,137	2,386	₦1.02bn	₦992m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	5,662	1,388	₦2.92bn	₦2.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,828	841	₦6.48bn	₦6.4bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	353	170	₦18.4bn	₦14.2bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	50,035	6,837	₦12.7bn	₦11.8bn	9%	9.4 yr
Unclassified	19,566	476	₦1.96bn	₦1.87bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	11,073	6,150	₦14.8bn	₦11.7bn	49%	2.1 yr
Rural	3,308	842	₦694m	₦581m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	58,332	8,531	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	11,349	1,703	₦979m	₦948m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	7,646	2,460	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	6,210	1,283	₦7.9bn	₦7.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	200	138	₦17.2bn	₦13bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	86	63	₦160m	₦160m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	54	45	₦496m	₦492m	61%	1.6 yr
School	53	38	₦141m	₦141m	89%	1.1 yr
Clinic	31	28	₦256m	₦252m	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	11	10	₦1.62m	₦1.62m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	6	5	₦39.6m	₦39.6m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial	1	0	₦426k	₦426k	39%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,982	14,305	₦30.2bn	₦25.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,624	14,047	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	351	252	₦17.9bn	₦13.7bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	7	6	₦96.4m	₦93.9m	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	55,792	8,147	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn
3.0	9,222	2,028	₦13.7bn	₦12.8bn
2.0	9,121	2,179	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn
1.0	7,658	1,232	₦514m	₦482m
4.0	2,188	718	₦13.4bn	₦10bn
5.0	1	1	₦25.2m	₦25.2m